Thursday, July 28, 2011

28 July (Thurs), Morning call

Index futures are moderately higher this morning, being boosted by the 8:30a (EST) release of weekly jobless claim figures, which fell more than expected: down 24,000 to 398,000. (Source: CNBC)

Of particular interest will be whether S&P 500 futures (/ES) can clear the overnight high of 1306.

Two DJIA component stocks currently present a particularly interesting picture: Chevron (CVX) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ).

CVX, hourly-bars:


With regard to the former, Chevron has come into a critical support point of three separate price channels, all based on an hourly-bars chart. That said, the picture is not particularly promising to bulls. The longest of the channels (peach-colored) is already breached, while the middle-length channel (green-colored) will be broken if prices open near the current, pre-market bid / ask levels (about 105.3). The highest-sloping price channel (yellow-colored) is valid down to about $104.7. Additionally, this last price level – approximately $104.7 – has served since March as a horizontal support / resistance level.

Of note, Chevron will release quarterly earnings results tomorrow, July 29th, at 18:00 (EST).

HPQ, hourly-bars:


Hewlett Packard has successfully formed an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern between May 17th, its prior earnings release (which was clearly disastrously received) and the present, a strongly bullish signal. The top line of the green price channel represents the neckline of the figure, while lows of late-May and mid-July are the twin shoulders. The mid-June nadir is, naturally, the head. A rally above the neckline on July 22nd completed the inverted head-and-shoulders figure, and the current pullback to that trendline, represented by yesterday’s close at $36.71, is a buying opportunity (per the above framework).

The theory would be invalidated by significant penetration of the neckline, namely a move of a dime or two below yesterday’s close.

HPQ earnings are not due until mid-August.

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

27 July (Wed), Evening summary

Markets plummeted today, continuously falling as the day wore on and ending virtually at session lows. Losses for the major indices ranged between 1.6 and 3.0 percent.

The broad-market S&P 500 surrendered 2.03 percent, while the DJIA and NASDAQ reversed their relative performance statistics of the recent sessions; the collection of industrials shed 1.58 percent, but the Naz was punished to the tune of 2.65 percent. The Russell 2000, inherently more volatile due to its being composed of small-cap stocks, fell 2.95 percent.

Uncertainty about the debt ceiling outcome continues to bedevil the markets. Indeed, media coverage is getting more frenzied by the day. Of note, there has been no significant positive development since last Friday’s impasse between the President and Speaker – none that has made the media coverage at least. The crisis has surely been a very significant contributor to gold’s ascent from $1480 per ounce to $1631, all since July 4th. Yet, today gold fell.

/GC, 4-hour bars:


Gold futures (/GC) appear to have hit price channel resistance during today’s session, reaching $1631 and then recoiling. But this withdrawal, coming on a risk-off, 2-percent-S&P-selloff day, suggests that investors are not single-mindedly panicking about a forthcoming default, as that might logically entail the purchase of gold.

The story in silver futures (/SI) is similar. Price has rallied impressively over the month (from $34 to $41.5 since Independence Day), but it eased today after touching price channel resistance.

/SI, 4-hour bars:


Among today’s biggest stories was the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), which declined with a monstrously red candle to price channel support at $80.0. As the discerning reader can infer from the chart below, IWM has made a tight-fitting (and, therefore, significant) nine-month price channel; its high, low and midpoint fit all intra-period highs and lows. Today’s sell-off has come to rest right on the channel’s lower support. Will tomorrow bring the expected bounce?

IWM, daily bars:

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

26 July (Tues), Evening summary

This trader’s attention has been focused of late on E-mini NASDAQ 100 futures (/NQ) as in the last few sessions the contract is consistently outperforming its peer index-tracking futures and, in a YTD chart with daily bars, seems poised for an upside break.

First, some brief commentary on the chart, an analysis that complements the written and graphical musings expounded in the 22 July evening summary. Please refer to the chart below.

/NQ, daily bars:


A notably bullish indication of the recent past occurred in mid-July when a brief downtrend in /NQ failed to reach the lower trendline (which connects the lows of mid-March and mid-June), instead halting in the 2325 vicinity. The price then roared back, not only retesting the upper resistance trendline, but also setting an incremental new high. The quickness of the upper trendline’s retest is also significant; the previous 2 tests were spaced some 2.5 months apart, while the current assault comes but two weeks after the last. Finally, the appearance of the last three candles as so-called dojis (meaning that the open and close is nearly identical) indicates that bears are unable to overpower the bulls, despite price action being at a purported resistance level.

This trader’s hypothesis is as follows: /NQ will continue treading water at this level – a few more dojis are in store – with a fresh bullish leg coming next week on news of a debt ceiling deal. For surely some deal will come. (If there were indeed non-negligible risk of a deal, Treasuries, the USD, and gold would be making bigger moves right now.)

To offer a quick bigger-picture summary, here’s how the indices ended today’s trade.

It was a marginally negative day across the board with another interesting instance of divergence between the DJIA and NASDAQ. The broad-market S&P 500 surrendered 0.41 percent, while the DJIA and NASDAQ shed 0.73 percent and 0.10 percent, respectively.

Friday, July 22, 2011

22 July (Fri), Evening summary

Among the standouts in today’s trade was a sharp contrast in the performances of the DJIA and the NASDAQ; the index of blue chips took a haircut of 0.34 percent, while its tech-heavy cousin advanced 0.86 percent. (The S&P 500 was virtually unchanged at +0.09 percent.)

The modest 24-point pop of the NASDAQ masks the important technical level reached in today’s trade, but a 4-hour bars chart of E-mini NASDAQ 100 futures (/NQ) bears all. Today’s price action catapulted the contract into highly significant price channel resistance. Yet the resistance is in stark danger of failing, as today marks its second test in short succession (the last was on 7/7). The shallow pull-back in the interim did not plumb down to the depths of the lower price channel, adding further evidence to the thesis of fragile resistance. An advance beyond 2440 or 2450 in next week’s trade would render the near-term outlook as strongly bullish.

/NQ, 4-hour bars:


Shifting perspective to the daily chart of /NQ, the viewer can easily attribute significance to the upper trendline of February to July, which is nothing but the upper line of the price channel mentioned above.

The broadening of the YTD price oscillations hint at an unstable topping formation which might portend a forthcoming bear market, although such an interpretation would be more plausible with more markedly diverging trendlines. In any event, an upside breakout -- so long as it is not a bear trap -- would naturally reject the hypothesis of there being any topping formation whatsoever.

/NQ, daily bars:


Changing gears, there appeared to be an opportunity during today’s market action for a long punt of Dow Jones Industrial Average Spdr ETF (DIA). A 3-minute bars chart reveals a well-formed channel of the week’s price action, and weakness during the 9:00am (CST) hour seemed to be headed for support at ~$126.00. Had selling pressure brought DIA to that level, it would have represented a relatively low-risk long entry point. Yet the trade did not appear; bulls emphatically appeared $0.25 too soon.

DIA, 3-minute bars:


As this trading day blended into the evening, the nation’s eyes turned to Washington, where the debt ceiling drama continued as House Speaker Boehner walked out of negotiations with President Obama. The President promptly convened a news conference during which he described in no uncertain terms the fragility of the negotiations and the dearth of time remaining. The (24-5) futures market was already closed for the weekend. In the alternative, how negative might the reaction have been?

Thursday, July 21, 2011

21 July (Thurs), Evening summary

Markets powered higher today, with S&P 500 E-mini futures (/ES) rising almost continuously from 5:00am CST straight into the after-hours market and tallying a cumulative appreciation of nearly 30 points (from ~1315 to ~1345).

The AH price at the moment –- 1343 @ 19:50 CST –- places /ES at price channel resistance on a 4-hour-bars chart. Should this resistance fail, subsequent selling pressure should develop around 1353, another price channel resistance area from the same chart.

/ES, 4-hour bars:


The daily-bars chart of /ES shows the futures contract had been developing a head-and-shoulders pattern from the start of the year through this past Monday (July 18), but the powerful rallies of Tuesday and today have significantly endangered the pattern’s completion. This is a bullish development, and it would be confirmed with a break above the trendline connecting the two shoulders (currently 1353).

Successful completion of the H&S pattern would require a break below the neckline, currently a price <1263. Of course, that may still transpire; such patterns sometimes have multiple right and/or left shoulders.

/ES, daily bars:


The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) presented a low-risk long opportunity in the market’s opening minutes, when prices opened above the 2.5-month horizontal support / resistance level of $133.20. A pullback to this area was predictably arrested, and prices commenced a renewed ascent that would last the entire session.

SPY, 1-hour bars:


Cisco Systems (CSCO) was a bullish standout in today’s markets, rallying over 3.4 percent. Anecdotally, the top of today’s WSJ contained the headline “Layoffs Deepen Gloom” and covered, inter alia, Cisco’s announcement of earlier this week to shed several thousand positions.

Downsizing had, in fact, overtaken CSCO long ago, as evidenced in the daily-bars chart. The capitulation low of mid-June ($14.78), however, has proven to be a mid-term low. A critical test will be whether CSCO can pierce significant price channel resistance just above, today at $16.62. Even if it eventually does, there is likely to be a short-term opportunity for a low-risk short play.

CSCO, daily bars:


Bank of America (BAC) has been an even more notable performer this week. The stock capitulated to significant price channel support at $9.40 and has since rebounded 9 percent.

BAC, daily bars:


The picture on the hourly-bars chart is just as impressive, with the YTD price action nicely defining the dominant price channel, and with the ex-$9.40 bounce occurring right on cue.

BAC, hourly bars:


A broad-market overview reveals that indices recorded gains in the range of 1 percent. The S&P 500 gained 1.35 percent, the DJIA added 1.21 percent, and the NASDAQ notched on 0.72 percent. These statistics reveal a considerable 0.63 percent divergence between the top-performing of the main three indices (the S&P 500) and the worst-performing (the NASDAQ). The Russell 2000 appreciated by 1.07 percent.

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Vienna, and Vienna to Krakow with LOT

Wien is an invigorating city for indefatigable seekers of intellectual and productivity-catalyzing inspiration. The city exudes a synthesis of the impeccable Germanic-Scandinavian functionality, historicity and/or civic beauty is the rule rather than the exception, there is a refreshing nonconformity with regards to retail standardization, particularly with regards to the cancer of the most ubiquitous Western brands. And it’s all packaged into a Hochdeutsch language milieu despite its extra-German localization. Five stars by my book!

The visit began swimmingly. I disembarked from the Airport-to-Centre Standtbahn at Rennweg, followed by ever-unfailing (knock on wood!) situational awareness instincts straight to the unmarked, picturesque row-house (row-house in the German sense, to be sure, not the Washingtonian one) which bears the Pension Bosch, and delighted in allowing the grandmotherly proprietress to show me around my efficiently appointed studio. At 40 EUR per night, inclusive of an exquisite Teutonic breakfast, I was not complaining about having to walk some feet to the shower, which was not en suite.

The day was spent, true to my personality, busily engaged at two of the town’s one-of-a-kind cafes. These were not local versions of Costa Coffee; rather, classic Viennese cafes are relics of 19th century urbane society, all priced for pauper-ish intellectuals and/or riffraff. Both classes would surely comprise the class of patrons in the ancient and less distant past alike. Waitstaff were dressed to the nines – in black tie, no less. But Melange went for about 3 or 4 EUR, Reisling (about 93mL) for 2 or 3.

Morning brought the bittersweet reality of imminent flight. Forthcoming travels on LOT, particularly inbound to the ojczyzna, are unequivocally occasions of great joy, for the journey and destination alike. The morning’s ride aboard LO 228 would be extraordinarily special. Not only would I enjoy breathing-in the usual airline formalities in the poetry of the Polish language, but I’d enjoy the twin rarities that are an international LOT journey aboard the ATR and, furthermore, an international sector that does not have Warsaw’s Okęcie as origin or terminus. Minutia for the vast majority, but meaningful to me.

Arriving at Wien Schwechat, I found myself in possession of a comfortable 55 minutes until scheduled departure time, but I swiftly discovered that generous buffer to be insufficient for the deluge of humanity assaulting all the Austrian Airlines check-in counters, including the Business Class / Star Gold area. (OS serves as the ground-handling agent for LO @ VIE.) Somewhat perturbed, I fluttered around the large check-in hall, searching for some anomalous distribution of the mob, all to no avail. I was quite convinced that, were I to wait at the shortest line available to me, some 20-30 minutes might easily elapse before I could check my bag. That would not do, given the constraint of baggage check-in cut-off time. And so I hopped to a kiosk, obtained my boarding pass, and dashed directly to the security check preceding the B30s bus gates, where I successfully passed through with my grossly oversized roll-aboard, over-sized liquids and all.

LO 228 was every bit as worthwhile as I’d anticipated. The load on the 9:40a push service was light – some 15-20 passengers on the 72-seat (+/-) aircraft, leading to speedy boarding of our ubiquitous Cobus tarmac bus. Boarding of the AT7 proceeded via the rear door – the only option on this type and its AT5 cousin – where one of the two F/As issued greetings and offered a selection of the day’s press, from which I grabbed the Puls Biznesu. (I don’t recall whether non- Polish language titles were available, and I was disappointed to see the Warsaw Business Journal, my usual pick, as out-of-stock, which is unfortunately a common situation in recent years.)

I’d be ensconced in 13D on this sector, a most fortunate choice for a trifecta of reasons. First, owing to the rear boarding and deplaning of the aircraft, rearward seats offer superior convenience, and row thirteen is the second-last row of economy. (Note that business class is the last two rows on most international services of this aircraft, occupying rows 15 and 16.) Second, the noise of the twin turboprop powerplants is considerably less pronounced and, furthermore, less bothersomely variable in shifts of frequency than is the case up front. (If that sounds a bit odd, your experience with turboprops is clearly limited; or you’ve been flying too much Business Class!) Finally, the herd instinct is invariably to book-up the forward seats, leaving the prime rearward seats not only desirable for their own sake, but also for the considerably greater likelihood of having empty seats all around for spreading out.

Our taxi commenced some minutes late, around 9:50a, and our Eurolot-operated aircraft was airborne around the top of the hour. From there, we proceeded along a relatively straight course to Krakow, bisecting the Czech Republic, itself covered by thick white cloud, and crossing into Poland not far from the city of Zywiec – incidentally, where I’d be heading after touching down at KRK. Clouds thinned somewhat over the Carpathian mountains and the Zalew Zywiecki, i.e. the lake just north of Zywiec, was dimly visible. Indeed, our aircraft flew almost directly overhead the dam that marks the apex of this most-recognizable geographic feature along the 200-odd mile flight path of the VIE-KRK sector.

Service onboard slightly exceeded expectations, the non-existent Warsaw Business Journal notwithstanding. An almond-topped muffin – plastic-wrapped though nonetheless substantive in size and acceptable in taste – was offered by the crew soon after take-off, an improvement over the sickly pieces of cheese and cured meat that I was expecting based on past experience. In the beverage service that followed shortly thereafter, I selected the usual combination for whenever I enjoy the good fortune of being a guest of LO, indeed, a duet that is only available on this very airline: black tea with a generous circular slice of fresh lemon (and I swear, they brew Lipton, admittedly a tea of the proletariat, though an unfailing brand when paired with fresh lemon), and blackcurrant juice. Mmmmm, I could go for both right now!

Descent began all-too-soon; normally, I’m quite impatient when travelling on the AT7, with its 500 kph cruise; but this 200-mile hop is wicked short, quite counter-intuitively given its over-flight of three countries. Snow flurries greeted our arrival at John Paul II International Airport, and I enjoyed further good fortune still by just catching the 11:16a departure of the ironically-christened “Airport Express” train to Krakow Glowny. In all, it was a grand morning: first impressions in Wien, a sensory symphony with LOT to that lovely country on the banks of the Wisla, and all in time to catch an early lunch in central Krakow.

Saturday, January 1, 2011

AA 757 runway overrun @ Jackson Hole; insightful PAX video provides clues

Jackson Hole, WY is a most interesting airport from the perspective of airline operations. A quick glance at forthcoming Friday flight schedules into the field (I checked Fri, Jan 14 and Fri, Feb 11) reveals a modest 9 scheduled operations, about the expected number for an airport catering only to a finite flow of skiers, but serving no sizeable business or residential community. Here is their (surprising) composition:

3 Delta flights from SLC (1 CR7, 2 319)
3 United flight from DEN (2 CR7, 1 319)
1 United flight from LAX (CR7)
1 United flight from ORD (757)
1 American flight from ORD (757).

The chief surprise: to have a regional airport served by a (admittedly narrow) majority of mainline aircraft -- JAC has 5 mainline flights and 4 regional ones. And two of the mainline flights are on relatively high-capacity Boeing 757s.

One of these 757s took a spill a few days ago: American's flight from Chicago failed to decelerate in sufficient time and subsequently suffered a runway overrun. Here's excellent coverage of the incident courtesy of the Aviation Herald.

And, the raison d' etre for this post is this: a vivid passenger video of the landing, complete with insightful post-incident commentary by a knowledgeable third-party.

Friday, December 31, 2010

Winter 2010-11 Central Europe Trip Report, Part 1: ORD-MUC-VIE

United 906, ORD-MUC, B777, C class (old config.), seat 8D and
Lufthansa 2328, MUC-VIE, A319, Y class, seat 7F

Willkommen an Bord.
Vielen Dank, dass Sie sich für United entschieden haben.


So begins, predictably enough, United’s menu on ORD-MUC. I was the fortunate recipient of an operational upgrade on the route during travel earlier this week. And since this does profess to be a joint markets and travel account, allow me to regale you, kind readers, with an account of that particular travel day.

The morning began with a departure for ORD at the crisp time of 6:30am. Living an über-convenient distance away from that four-terminal gathering point of majors, regionals, internationals alike – and indeed, of the multitudes of humanity –, transport between doorstep (itself under the runway 28 arrival traffic flow) and United’s Terminal One is a most invigorating 10 minutes’ ecstasy of open-throttled cruise down the John F. Kennedy expressway. The experience is, indeed, profoundly invigorating: to be motoring to that great facilitator of extraordinary experiences, salutary perspectives, awesome creativity, most superior optimism; and moreover, to be doing so at the early morning dawn, when life itself awaits, when a day of unbridled possibilities is born from the pregnant night. To be soon heading into the heavens, the acceleration and lift being a great constant in a life of tumult, the unfailing inspiration amidst a world of fickle investments, is the gentle kiss of love itself.

And so, arriving at United’s worldwide home, I proceeded straight to the faux-luxury oasis-cum- pig pen known by the bombastic appellation of Red Carpet Club. If ever there was a prime example of a misnomer, of flagrant false advertising, nay even of a humourless euphemism, the restricted-access grounds near Charlie Six are surely it! Alright, critical and non-existent readership, I do indeed jest. Yes, guilty as charged: my flight to München, the fair United Niner-Zero-Six, was not until the evening time of 6:12pm, and I was journeying some eleven hours early to O’Hare for the sole purpose of reclining in the clubby milieu. Or rather, I was heading to the source of the cheapest available internet connection, for “home”, where I no longer reside, has extinguished the inaudible ping-ping of its Cisco something-or-other. By some miracle I convinced the United gate keeper to provide the necessary wifi scratch-off card, a most generous gesture for which I, as neither a club member nor an international premium cabin passenger, was not strictly entitled. (Entry itself to the RCC was by the book, by virtue of holding Star Alliance Gold status, though this is mentioned in strictly humble breadth, in recognition of the supremely trivial qualifications necessary for this again overly-flattering honorific; indeed, it seems even Ma and Pa Kettle fliers can, these days, round up the 19,000 qualifying miles, which is all that’s necessary in the low-standards Aegean Airlines program.) I got straight to work, pausing intermittently for that greaser of output, yes that quintessential conduit of cognitive output: coffee. And I made fine progress on some academic deliverables. Indeed, much like the commerce of UPS, a true academic’s output (and a faux academic’s work too, apparently) never pauses, er, sleeps. No matter that the semester has been tied up in a nice bow.

After some four hours of Gulag-like labour deep within the maze of cubicles at the ‘ole RCC, it was time to glimpse the outside world anew. And so a date with the Blue Line was initiated, though my excitement for the time spent together was admittedly curtailed when I glimpsed an empty gate Michael One as we trudged out of O’Hare; the gate is sometimes occupied by the stately Boeing 767-300 in LOT colours. And Back to the work-a-day hum-drum of Jefferson Park I ventured, with chief task of preparing my journeying bag accomplished with alacrity. But then: back to those privileged airside surroundings.

I opted for a different club for my pre-push drinking. Indeed, I did not even have time to engage in drinking in any proper sense, for a glass of “house white” is all for which time permitted before I dashed to C12, where the Boeing 777-200 for MUC was just commencing boarding. And, as I’d anticipated, I was presented with a new boarding pass upon approaching the counter to discreetly inquire about just that very matter: I’d received an operational upgrade to Business Class, seat 8 Delta within the forward mini-cabin.

Hoorah! How pleasing it is to be bestowed with that last-minute reprieve from the contortions and sacrifices of Economy. No matter that one is truly excited about venturing to beloved Europa, indeed no matter even that one would welcome a seat in Economy, even the last middle one, over the plushest hotel bed, any night of the year, so long as a take-off and landing in a stimulating locale were included. But nonetheless: a chance of significantly less fitful sleep and the guarantee of significantly more/better food and drink brought tremendous gratitude and, dare I say it, relief. Now a word about this drinking. I rarely drink, though I do admit to being a budding oenophile (though most definitely of hopelessly neophyte skill); however, the standard operating procedure on red-eye flights invariably calls for generous alcohol to catalyze the exhaustion of a long travel day into emphatic and unbroken sleep. On domestic flights, a glass or two of red-wine is the lubricant of choice. But on international services, the repertoire is expanded: some domestic sparkling wine before push-back, a usual choice of earthy red during the Express meal service, perhaps a dabble in red port with cheese. In either case, expeditious consumption is the over-arching priority. On red-eyes, which can be as short as 2h45m in the case of a recent LAS-ORD service, I try to be producing the brain waves of sleep within 15 minutes of wheels-up. When TATL or other transcontinental service is in play, I have taken a predilection towards ordering the “Express Dine” (or equivalent) meal service, whereby everything is served at one, and with which I might finish the final course of cheese within an hour of the unfurling of our craft’s airborne-ness.

And so, soon after wheels up, the result of a take-off roll that commenced at the Tango Ten intersection with Runway 32 left, I made the following selections for the dinner service aboard UA 906, opting for Express Dine:

Zum Angang (beginnings)
• Center cut smoked salmon loin, over a bed of fresh cucumber relish
• Seasonal mixed greens, roasted garlic red wine vinaigrette

Hauptgericht (main course)
• Herbed Boursin® rotisserie chicken with pomegranate-lime glaze; bulgar wheat pilaf with cranberries and pecans, stir-fried sugar snap peas and carrots

Zum Abschluss (to finish)
• Artisan cheese selection (served with red grapes and crackers); Sartori Bellavitano, Montchevré Sun-dried Tomato and Basil Chévre

Pre-departure, I enjoyed a touch of Pommery Brut Royal NV Champagne, a departure from the expected northern California origin of United’s onboard carbon dioxide -imbued alcoholic beverage. With the chicken, I selected Cave la Suzienne Racines Profondes 2007 AOC Cotes-du-Rhone. Given the passage of several days since my consumption of the above food and drink, I will refrain from detailed commentary thereof, save to comment, in a most general sense, that I was highly satisfied with the meal, particularly with the chicken. I’d never previously opted away from the beef or fish selections when travelling in an intercontinental premium cabin, but on 906 I was influenced by having recently eaten lackluster ribs, which was the only beef or fish selection on offer. Additionally, I recalled a meal tasting with United in which I partook in May (coincidentally enough, in a conference room at the C16 RCC, which I visited immediately before boarding the 777 sojourn being reviewed here), during which I was favourably impressed with the rotisserie chicken with which our focus group was presented.

And soon, so very soon, after polishing off the port and tuning off the Flight of the Conchords, I reclined and fell promptly asleep.

Nearly six hours later, I was back within the belly of the aluminum whale – not just my mass, but my consciousness, too. Breakfast was a perfunctory affair, and swiftly we glided ever-lower across the manicured and stoic German countryside, kissing the runway as we bid Guten Morgen to the assorted aircraft of TATL joint venture partner Lufthansa that were stationed all around. It was the usual trek from the high Hotel gates to German (or, should I say, EU) immigration, and my naturally quick pace meant I was comfortably ahead of the 906 pack by the time of our reaching that row of barren visages. Lines for re-clearing security appeared surprisingly populated, but a discreet Lufthansa agent directed me towards the ostentatiously segregated Lufthansa First Class check-in (and its associated security control); it’s extraordinary, in the literal sense of the descriptor, how LH cares for the Star Golds it carries, some of whom have accrued as few as 19k annual status miles (as I described above).

The obligatory visit to the G29 Senator lounge was as pleasant as ever. A delightful assortment of Germanic breakfast items; sliced cucumbers and tomatoes, Bavarian cheeses and meats, Swiss muesli, glass-housed latte machiatos was, as usual, but a sampling of the rich offering. I snatched an FTD, IHT, and naturally enough, FT for my intellectual enthrallment (in my case, I mean that quite literally!), and I was off! – just promptly enough to make the final boarding opportunity of the LH A319 service to Wien. Our lightly-loaded ship rocketed into the milky atmosphere after seemingly a mere 3k-4k of used pavement; indeed, we heard the pilots’ wir starten and felt the pronounced push of the twin turbofans while our aircraft was still taxiing onto the active runway from an access-providing high-speed taxiway. There was no ultra-conservative 90-degree point turn at the extreme threshold, an MO often seen at the hands of uptight (though admirably safety-uncompromising) American helmsmen. And, after too quick an exploration of the Mainline and feeder (Companies and Markets) operations of Pearson’s flagship, it was Grüß Gott Schwechat!

Winter 2010-11 Central Europe Trip Report, Introduction

*Reserved*

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Dec 15: Markets flat; notably, Baidu tumbles

Instead of pointing out the pedestrian, downright sleepy closing numbers that summarize today's market vacillations, allow me to highlight a notable distribution day in one of the S&P500's best-performing stocks:


BIDU, ~50d/1h


BIDU, 180d/2h

Per Barron's, Baidu managers issued downbeat comments about the firm's 2011 growth prospects during an industry conference, prompting the sell-off.

The selling occurred on heavy volume, resulting in a distribution day and, per theory, deteriorating the technical picture for bulls. Yet BIDU is no stranger to volatility, and the stock bounced briskly after a comparable pummeling on November 16. $100 marks not only strong price channel support but, additionally, "round number S&R" that cannot be discounted too lightly. Longs with a $98 stop might be rewarded in the 2-3 day time period.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Dec 2: Markets tempted into "kiss of death"

I love the kiss of death: such a cheeky term and, simultaneously, an elegant insight into the capriciousness of human emotion. Perhaps I've waxed lyrically about the simple phenomenon in earlier posts -- surely, I am nothing if not, quite too often, a broken record -- but, should a refresher be necessary, it is nothing but the approach of price to a trendline, where the absolute value of the slope of price is greater than the absolute value of the slope of trendline, and where the slopes of both have the same sign (i.e. both are positive or both are negative). Here's the kiss of death in action:



Technical analysis predicts that a kiss of death will serve as durable support or resistance. As the name implies, the strong momentum of price will be stymied -- in other words, die -- upon touching, or kissing, the trendline.

The intuition is simple. Price momentum, driven as it is by human psychology, "over-extends" itself (evidenced by a high absolute value of slope) in pursuit of the support / resistance of the trendline in question. The momentum draws-in market participants, each one driven by fear of losing out on the move (n.b. fear of losing out is, per trading psychology goddess Denise Shull, the most compelling of human motivators), but this collective piling-onboard suddenly stops when the kiss of death occurs. Why? Because everyone can see it. Though not all market participants cuddle up nightly with technical analysis software, many technical analysis phenomena are apparent on an intuitive level to a wider class of market participants than simply contrarian-leaning TA aficionados.

Put in practical, i.e. non-theoretical, language the above analysis suggests a favourable probability of price withdrawing from the /ES = ~1222 level, though there is no explicit prediction about the degree of withdrawl; perhaps 1218 or 1215 is possible. And all bets are off thereafter. Of course, no TA indicator is always right -- or even 80% successful. Should price top 1225, the bears will no longer have this particular kiss of death as a valid argument towards their market outlook.

Happy trading!