Thursday, October 29, 2009

29/10: Markets rebound smartly, buoyed by strong Q3 US GDP data

Almighty Goldman yesterday forecast a US third quarter GDP reading of +2.5%, below the consensus forecast of +3.0%. Today, at precisely 8:30a Eastern, a serving of humble pie was delivered to 85 Broad Street. At this time, the wires lit up with the true number (granted, the initial estimate only) of +3.5%, and microseconds afterward, buy orders flooded the market. And some surely emanated from Goldman's HQ on Broad, too.

Humility was delivered to my workspace this morning, too. With the bullish GDP reading, my last-minute (literally) investment in AA puts during yesterday's market was proven to be a mistake. Yet, I can fall-back on buttressed logic in that decision, at least. What's worse, I still have the puts now. That's right; I did not sell. And I don't have a good reason -- besides, of course, for that common psychological impairment inherent to all humanity: reluctance to book a loss. Hope does indeed spring eternal.

Tomorrow I will surely examine my continuation of this long-short strategy; as a reminder, I continue to hold QQQQ calls alongside those AA puts. I see today's decisive rally continuing through tomorrow's open, but then it risks fading absent further stimulus. We may yet see a re-test early next week of Wednesday's lows. Thus, I may execute a strategy of selling the QQQQ calls if a short-term top appears to form and then hope for price deterioration to advantage my holding of puts.

Finally, here's a 10-day of QQQQ, which approximates for an overall market snapshot, too:

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