Tuesday, June 1, 2010

01/06: Markets under pressure, geopolitical concerns mount

On this first trading day of June, /ES futures point to a sharply lower open (they're presently down about 11 points, a considerable drop, though considerably improved on their nadir of down approximately 19 points to 1069).

For proper perspective, however, consider this ~50 day chart of the /ES, using 2-hour bars (and full 24 hour price action) --

Per the above chart and its price channel, the overnight drop to 1069 is within expected price action (i.e. within the price channel). Furthermore, the late-May break below the lower price channel and subsequent recovery signals a bullish capitulation, and this morning's retracement to the lower price channel is consistent with an upward, post-capitulation trajectory.

In short, I'm bullish as long as /ES holds above 1069, i.e. the lower price channel. A break below, and particularly movement to below 1060, would shift my sentiment to decided bearishness and lead me to project further selling to at least 1020.

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