Thursday, October 7, 2010

07/10: Big-picture musings

I will not commence this post with a renewed vows of frequent and substantive posting. I'll let the following (true) statistic speak of the volume of readers that have been begging, badgering, and downright being belligerent about the dearth of content: Google currently owes me less than the typical price of a cup o' Joe in advertising fees for the past few months. Hopefully that statement is sufficiently vague to dodge those highly-paid Silicon Valley lawyers, who are just itching to sue the latest dirt-poor blogger for untold damages at having revealed their precise remuneration from Google Adwords. Based on my earnings, I can't even afford the Metro fare to the courtroom, to say nothing of needing to hitchhike my way back.

Those pleasantries aside, I have navigated a transition into new professional endeavors over the past few weeks, and the upheaval having passed, I trust that there's at least somewhat of a chance for sustained value generation on these pages over the weeks ahead. And the impetus for the vagueness is an omnipotent, oddly mysterious, 'just because', its being one of the few perks (ok, the only one) of being Founder, Chairman and CEO of Ad Astra Publishing and Pontificating, NLC (like an LLC, but better, with no liability whatsoever!) And yes, dear reader, the way this writing is flowing, I too identify this post as being at risk of speedy revision.

In just-breaking news, markets have not stood still since I last scratched the virtual chalkboard that is this blog. September spawned a sustained and, so far, unbroken move towards the upside, with the broad-market /ES contract now looking over-extended, though not necessarily without potential for one last pop, before the inescapable tendency towards mean-reversion says hello. In any event, 1175 looms as important forthcoming horizontal resistance, as do 1200 and 1210 further up the chart.

A 180d/4h /ES chart follows. From here on, such notation will convey the following: first, the time period of the chart (here, 180 days); second, the time period of each bar (here, 4 hours). /ES is, of course, a 24/5 contract (meaning that it trades for approximately 120 hours per week); hence, a 180-day chart of /ES will contain far more data that, say, a 180-d depiction of SPY, its corresponding exchange-traded fund, which trades for but 32.5 hours per half-fortnight. And I trust, reader, that you'll somehow forgive the quality of this late hour's missive, and return for more dreary punishment tomorrow. Yes, I did say tomorrow.

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