Friday, December 28, 2012

Russell 2000 futures (TF) tightly bound by a price channel

DEC28 1122EST. Markets have been buffeted over the past several trading sessions by news concerning the US fiscal cliff. Yet despite the market turbulence, including the dramatic Dec 20th after-hours sell-off in index futures, recent price action in the Russell 2000 futures contract (TF) has conformed robustly to a simple price channel model.

TF (Mini-size Russell 2000 Index Futures). Dec 18 to Dec 28, 2012. 15-minute candles.
As can be seen in the above screenshot, price action between Wednesday, Dec 19 and today fits entirely within a single price channel, shown in dashed red. The channel is robustly defined, with 5 touches of the lower support line -- one of these being the nadir of the Dec 20th after-hours capitulation -- and 3 touches of the upper resistance line.

A break of the upper resistance line would be bullish. Nonetheless, the news-driven (re: the fiscal cliff) nature of today's markets, with the same expected for Monday, Dec 31, means that technical trading signals are riskier than normal.