Jackson Hole, WY is a most interesting airport from the perspective of airline operations. A quick glance at forthcoming Friday flight schedules into the field (I checked Fri, Jan 14 and Fri, Feb 11) reveals a modest 9 scheduled operations, about the expected number for an airport catering only to a finite flow of skiers, but serving no sizeable business or residential community. Here is their (surprising) composition:
3 Delta flights from SLC (1 CR7, 2 319)
3 United flight from DEN (2 CR7, 1 319)
1 United flight from LAX (CR7)
1 United flight from ORD (757)
1 American flight from ORD (757).
The chief surprise: to have a regional airport served by a (admittedly narrow) majority of mainline aircraft -- JAC has 5 mainline flights and 4 regional ones. And two of the mainline flights are on relatively high-capacity Boeing 757s.
One of these 757s took a spill a few days ago: American's flight from Chicago failed to decelerate in sufficient time and subsequently suffered a runway overrun. Here's excellent coverage of the incident courtesy of the Aviation Herald.
And, the raison d' etre for this post is this: a vivid passenger video of the landing, complete with insightful post-incident commentary by a knowledgeable third-party.
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Friday, December 31, 2010
Winter 2010-11 Central Europe Trip Report, Part 1: ORD-MUC-VIE
United 906, ORD-MUC, B777, C class (old config.), seat 8D and
Lufthansa 2328, MUC-VIE, A319, Y class, seat 7F
Willkommen an Bord.
Vielen Dank, dass Sie sich für United entschieden haben.
So begins, predictably enough, United’s menu on ORD-MUC. I was the fortunate recipient of an operational upgrade on the route during travel earlier this week. And since this does profess to be a joint markets and travel account, allow me to regale you, kind readers, with an account of that particular travel day.
The morning began with a departure for ORD at the crisp time of 6:30am. Living an über-convenient distance away from that four-terminal gathering point of majors, regionals, internationals alike – and indeed, of the multitudes of humanity –, transport between doorstep (itself under the runway 28 arrival traffic flow) and United’s Terminal One is a most invigorating 10 minutes’ ecstasy of open-throttled cruise down the John F. Kennedy expressway. The experience is, indeed, profoundly invigorating: to be motoring to that great facilitator of extraordinary experiences, salutary perspectives, awesome creativity, most superior optimism; and moreover, to be doing so at the early morning dawn, when life itself awaits, when a day of unbridled possibilities is born from the pregnant night. To be soon heading into the heavens, the acceleration and lift being a great constant in a life of tumult, the unfailing inspiration amidst a world of fickle investments, is the gentle kiss of love itself.
And so, arriving at United’s worldwide home, I proceeded straight to the faux-luxury oasis-cum- pig pen known by the bombastic appellation of Red Carpet Club. If ever there was a prime example of a misnomer, of flagrant false advertising, nay even of a humourless euphemism, the restricted-access grounds near Charlie Six are surely it! Alright, critical and non-existent readership, I do indeed jest. Yes, guilty as charged: my flight to München, the fair United Niner-Zero-Six, was not until the evening time of 6:12pm, and I was journeying some eleven hours early to O’Hare for the sole purpose of reclining in the clubby milieu. Or rather, I was heading to the source of the cheapest available internet connection, for “home”, where I no longer reside, has extinguished the inaudible ping-ping of its Cisco something-or-other. By some miracle I convinced the United gate keeper to provide the necessary wifi scratch-off card, a most generous gesture for which I, as neither a club member nor an international premium cabin passenger, was not strictly entitled. (Entry itself to the RCC was by the book, by virtue of holding Star Alliance Gold status, though this is mentioned in strictly humble breadth, in recognition of the supremely trivial qualifications necessary for this again overly-flattering honorific; indeed, it seems even Ma and Pa Kettle fliers can, these days, round up the 19,000 qualifying miles, which is all that’s necessary in the low-standards Aegean Airlines program.) I got straight to work, pausing intermittently for that greaser of output, yes that quintessential conduit of cognitive output: coffee. And I made fine progress on some academic deliverables. Indeed, much like the commerce of UPS, a true academic’s output (and a faux academic’s work too, apparently) never pauses, er, sleeps. No matter that the semester has been tied up in a nice bow.
After some four hours of Gulag-like labour deep within the maze of cubicles at the ‘ole RCC, it was time to glimpse the outside world anew. And so a date with the Blue Line was initiated, though my excitement for the time spent together was admittedly curtailed when I glimpsed an empty gate Michael One as we trudged out of O’Hare; the gate is sometimes occupied by the stately Boeing 767-300 in LOT colours. And Back to the work-a-day hum-drum of Jefferson Park I ventured, with chief task of preparing my journeying bag accomplished with alacrity. But then: back to those privileged airside surroundings.
I opted for a different club for my pre-push drinking. Indeed, I did not even have time to engage in drinking in any proper sense, for a glass of “house white” is all for which time permitted before I dashed to C12, where the Boeing 777-200 for MUC was just commencing boarding. And, as I’d anticipated, I was presented with a new boarding pass upon approaching the counter to discreetly inquire about just that very matter: I’d received an operational upgrade to Business Class, seat 8 Delta within the forward mini-cabin.
Hoorah! How pleasing it is to be bestowed with that last-minute reprieve from the contortions and sacrifices of Economy. No matter that one is truly excited about venturing to beloved Europa, indeed no matter even that one would welcome a seat in Economy, even the last middle one, over the plushest hotel bed, any night of the year, so long as a take-off and landing in a stimulating locale were included. But nonetheless: a chance of significantly less fitful sleep and the guarantee of significantly more/better food and drink brought tremendous gratitude and, dare I say it, relief. Now a word about this drinking. I rarely drink, though I do admit to being a budding oenophile (though most definitely of hopelessly neophyte skill); however, the standard operating procedure on red-eye flights invariably calls for generous alcohol to catalyze the exhaustion of a long travel day into emphatic and unbroken sleep. On domestic flights, a glass or two of red-wine is the lubricant of choice. But on international services, the repertoire is expanded: some domestic sparkling wine before push-back, a usual choice of earthy red during the Express meal service, perhaps a dabble in red port with cheese. In either case, expeditious consumption is the over-arching priority. On red-eyes, which can be as short as 2h45m in the case of a recent LAS-ORD service, I try to be producing the brain waves of sleep within 15 minutes of wheels-up. When TATL or other transcontinental service is in play, I have taken a predilection towards ordering the “Express Dine” (or equivalent) meal service, whereby everything is served at one, and with which I might finish the final course of cheese within an hour of the unfurling of our craft’s airborne-ness.
And so, soon after wheels up, the result of a take-off roll that commenced at the Tango Ten intersection with Runway 32 left, I made the following selections for the dinner service aboard UA 906, opting for Express Dine:
Zum Angang (beginnings)
• Center cut smoked salmon loin, over a bed of fresh cucumber relish
• Seasonal mixed greens, roasted garlic red wine vinaigrette
Hauptgericht (main course)
• Herbed Boursin® rotisserie chicken with pomegranate-lime glaze; bulgar wheat pilaf with cranberries and pecans, stir-fried sugar snap peas and carrots
Zum Abschluss (to finish)
• Artisan cheese selection (served with red grapes and crackers); Sartori Bellavitano, Montchevré Sun-dried Tomato and Basil Chévre
Pre-departure, I enjoyed a touch of Pommery Brut Royal NV Champagne, a departure from the expected northern California origin of United’s onboard carbon dioxide -imbued alcoholic beverage. With the chicken, I selected Cave la Suzienne Racines Profondes 2007 AOC Cotes-du-Rhone. Given the passage of several days since my consumption of the above food and drink, I will refrain from detailed commentary thereof, save to comment, in a most general sense, that I was highly satisfied with the meal, particularly with the chicken. I’d never previously opted away from the beef or fish selections when travelling in an intercontinental premium cabin, but on 906 I was influenced by having recently eaten lackluster ribs, which was the only beef or fish selection on offer. Additionally, I recalled a meal tasting with United in which I partook in May (coincidentally enough, in a conference room at the C16 RCC, which I visited immediately before boarding the 777 sojourn being reviewed here), during which I was favourably impressed with the rotisserie chicken with which our focus group was presented.
And soon, so very soon, after polishing off the port and tuning off the Flight of the Conchords, I reclined and fell promptly asleep.
Nearly six hours later, I was back within the belly of the aluminum whale – not just my mass, but my consciousness, too. Breakfast was a perfunctory affair, and swiftly we glided ever-lower across the manicured and stoic German countryside, kissing the runway as we bid Guten Morgen to the assorted aircraft of TATL joint venture partner Lufthansa that were stationed all around. It was the usual trek from the high Hotel gates to German (or, should I say, EU) immigration, and my naturally quick pace meant I was comfortably ahead of the 906 pack by the time of our reaching that row of barren visages. Lines for re-clearing security appeared surprisingly populated, but a discreet Lufthansa agent directed me towards the ostentatiously segregated Lufthansa First Class check-in (and its associated security control); it’s extraordinary, in the literal sense of the descriptor, how LH cares for the Star Golds it carries, some of whom have accrued as few as 19k annual status miles (as I described above).
The obligatory visit to the G29 Senator lounge was as pleasant as ever. A delightful assortment of Germanic breakfast items; sliced cucumbers and tomatoes, Bavarian cheeses and meats, Swiss muesli, glass-housed latte machiatos was, as usual, but a sampling of the rich offering. I snatched an FTD, IHT, and naturally enough, FT for my intellectual enthrallment (in my case, I mean that quite literally!), and I was off! – just promptly enough to make the final boarding opportunity of the LH A319 service to Wien. Our lightly-loaded ship rocketed into the milky atmosphere after seemingly a mere 3k-4k of used pavement; indeed, we heard the pilots’ wir starten and felt the pronounced push of the twin turbofans while our aircraft was still taxiing onto the active runway from an access-providing high-speed taxiway. There was no ultra-conservative 90-degree point turn at the extreme threshold, an MO often seen at the hands of uptight (though admirably safety-uncompromising) American helmsmen. And, after too quick an exploration of the Mainline and feeder (Companies and Markets) operations of Pearson’s flagship, it was Grüß Gott Schwechat!
Lufthansa 2328, MUC-VIE, A319, Y class, seat 7F
Willkommen an Bord.
Vielen Dank, dass Sie sich für United entschieden haben.
So begins, predictably enough, United’s menu on ORD-MUC. I was the fortunate recipient of an operational upgrade on the route during travel earlier this week. And since this does profess to be a joint markets and travel account, allow me to regale you, kind readers, with an account of that particular travel day.
The morning began with a departure for ORD at the crisp time of 6:30am. Living an über-convenient distance away from that four-terminal gathering point of majors, regionals, internationals alike – and indeed, of the multitudes of humanity –, transport between doorstep (itself under the runway 28 arrival traffic flow) and United’s Terminal One is a most invigorating 10 minutes’ ecstasy of open-throttled cruise down the John F. Kennedy expressway. The experience is, indeed, profoundly invigorating: to be motoring to that great facilitator of extraordinary experiences, salutary perspectives, awesome creativity, most superior optimism; and moreover, to be doing so at the early morning dawn, when life itself awaits, when a day of unbridled possibilities is born from the pregnant night. To be soon heading into the heavens, the acceleration and lift being a great constant in a life of tumult, the unfailing inspiration amidst a world of fickle investments, is the gentle kiss of love itself.
And so, arriving at United’s worldwide home, I proceeded straight to the faux-luxury oasis-cum- pig pen known by the bombastic appellation of Red Carpet Club. If ever there was a prime example of a misnomer, of flagrant false advertising, nay even of a humourless euphemism, the restricted-access grounds near Charlie Six are surely it! Alright, critical and non-existent readership, I do indeed jest. Yes, guilty as charged: my flight to München, the fair United Niner-Zero-Six, was not until the evening time of 6:12pm, and I was journeying some eleven hours early to O’Hare for the sole purpose of reclining in the clubby milieu. Or rather, I was heading to the source of the cheapest available internet connection, for “home”, where I no longer reside, has extinguished the inaudible ping-ping of its Cisco something-or-other. By some miracle I convinced the United gate keeper to provide the necessary wifi scratch-off card, a most generous gesture for which I, as neither a club member nor an international premium cabin passenger, was not strictly entitled. (Entry itself to the RCC was by the book, by virtue of holding Star Alliance Gold status, though this is mentioned in strictly humble breadth, in recognition of the supremely trivial qualifications necessary for this again overly-flattering honorific; indeed, it seems even Ma and Pa Kettle fliers can, these days, round up the 19,000 qualifying miles, which is all that’s necessary in the low-standards Aegean Airlines program.) I got straight to work, pausing intermittently for that greaser of output, yes that quintessential conduit of cognitive output: coffee. And I made fine progress on some academic deliverables. Indeed, much like the commerce of UPS, a true academic’s output (and a faux academic’s work too, apparently) never pauses, er, sleeps. No matter that the semester has been tied up in a nice bow.
After some four hours of Gulag-like labour deep within the maze of cubicles at the ‘ole RCC, it was time to glimpse the outside world anew. And so a date with the Blue Line was initiated, though my excitement for the time spent together was admittedly curtailed when I glimpsed an empty gate Michael One as we trudged out of O’Hare; the gate is sometimes occupied by the stately Boeing 767-300 in LOT colours. And Back to the work-a-day hum-drum of Jefferson Park I ventured, with chief task of preparing my journeying bag accomplished with alacrity. But then: back to those privileged airside surroundings.
I opted for a different club for my pre-push drinking. Indeed, I did not even have time to engage in drinking in any proper sense, for a glass of “house white” is all for which time permitted before I dashed to C12, where the Boeing 777-200 for MUC was just commencing boarding. And, as I’d anticipated, I was presented with a new boarding pass upon approaching the counter to discreetly inquire about just that very matter: I’d received an operational upgrade to Business Class, seat 8 Delta within the forward mini-cabin.
Hoorah! How pleasing it is to be bestowed with that last-minute reprieve from the contortions and sacrifices of Economy. No matter that one is truly excited about venturing to beloved Europa, indeed no matter even that one would welcome a seat in Economy, even the last middle one, over the plushest hotel bed, any night of the year, so long as a take-off and landing in a stimulating locale were included. But nonetheless: a chance of significantly less fitful sleep and the guarantee of significantly more/better food and drink brought tremendous gratitude and, dare I say it, relief. Now a word about this drinking. I rarely drink, though I do admit to being a budding oenophile (though most definitely of hopelessly neophyte skill); however, the standard operating procedure on red-eye flights invariably calls for generous alcohol to catalyze the exhaustion of a long travel day into emphatic and unbroken sleep. On domestic flights, a glass or two of red-wine is the lubricant of choice. But on international services, the repertoire is expanded: some domestic sparkling wine before push-back, a usual choice of earthy red during the Express meal service, perhaps a dabble in red port with cheese. In either case, expeditious consumption is the over-arching priority. On red-eyes, which can be as short as 2h45m in the case of a recent LAS-ORD service, I try to be producing the brain waves of sleep within 15 minutes of wheels-up. When TATL or other transcontinental service is in play, I have taken a predilection towards ordering the “Express Dine” (or equivalent) meal service, whereby everything is served at one, and with which I might finish the final course of cheese within an hour of the unfurling of our craft’s airborne-ness.
And so, soon after wheels up, the result of a take-off roll that commenced at the Tango Ten intersection with Runway 32 left, I made the following selections for the dinner service aboard UA 906, opting for Express Dine:
Zum Angang (beginnings)
• Center cut smoked salmon loin, over a bed of fresh cucumber relish
• Seasonal mixed greens, roasted garlic red wine vinaigrette
Hauptgericht (main course)
• Herbed Boursin® rotisserie chicken with pomegranate-lime glaze; bulgar wheat pilaf with cranberries and pecans, stir-fried sugar snap peas and carrots
Zum Abschluss (to finish)
• Artisan cheese selection (served with red grapes and crackers); Sartori Bellavitano, Montchevré Sun-dried Tomato and Basil Chévre
Pre-departure, I enjoyed a touch of Pommery Brut Royal NV Champagne, a departure from the expected northern California origin of United’s onboard carbon dioxide -imbued alcoholic beverage. With the chicken, I selected Cave la Suzienne Racines Profondes 2007 AOC Cotes-du-Rhone. Given the passage of several days since my consumption of the above food and drink, I will refrain from detailed commentary thereof, save to comment, in a most general sense, that I was highly satisfied with the meal, particularly with the chicken. I’d never previously opted away from the beef or fish selections when travelling in an intercontinental premium cabin, but on 906 I was influenced by having recently eaten lackluster ribs, which was the only beef or fish selection on offer. Additionally, I recalled a meal tasting with United in which I partook in May (coincidentally enough, in a conference room at the C16 RCC, which I visited immediately before boarding the 777 sojourn being reviewed here), during which I was favourably impressed with the rotisserie chicken with which our focus group was presented.
And soon, so very soon, after polishing off the port and tuning off the Flight of the Conchords, I reclined and fell promptly asleep.
Nearly six hours later, I was back within the belly of the aluminum whale – not just my mass, but my consciousness, too. Breakfast was a perfunctory affair, and swiftly we glided ever-lower across the manicured and stoic German countryside, kissing the runway as we bid Guten Morgen to the assorted aircraft of TATL joint venture partner Lufthansa that were stationed all around. It was the usual trek from the high Hotel gates to German (or, should I say, EU) immigration, and my naturally quick pace meant I was comfortably ahead of the 906 pack by the time of our reaching that row of barren visages. Lines for re-clearing security appeared surprisingly populated, but a discreet Lufthansa agent directed me towards the ostentatiously segregated Lufthansa First Class check-in (and its associated security control); it’s extraordinary, in the literal sense of the descriptor, how LH cares for the Star Golds it carries, some of whom have accrued as few as 19k annual status miles (as I described above).
The obligatory visit to the G29 Senator lounge was as pleasant as ever. A delightful assortment of Germanic breakfast items; sliced cucumbers and tomatoes, Bavarian cheeses and meats, Swiss muesli, glass-housed latte machiatos was, as usual, but a sampling of the rich offering. I snatched an FTD, IHT, and naturally enough, FT for my intellectual enthrallment (in my case, I mean that quite literally!), and I was off! – just promptly enough to make the final boarding opportunity of the LH A319 service to Wien. Our lightly-loaded ship rocketed into the milky atmosphere after seemingly a mere 3k-4k of used pavement; indeed, we heard the pilots’ wir starten and felt the pronounced push of the twin turbofans while our aircraft was still taxiing onto the active runway from an access-providing high-speed taxiway. There was no ultra-conservative 90-degree point turn at the extreme threshold, an MO often seen at the hands of uptight (though admirably safety-uncompromising) American helmsmen. And, after too quick an exploration of the Mainline and feeder (Companies and Markets) operations of Pearson’s flagship, it was Grüß Gott Schwechat!
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Dec 15: Markets flat; notably, Baidu tumbles
Instead of pointing out the pedestrian, downright sleepy closing numbers that summarize today's market vacillations, allow me to highlight a notable distribution day in one of the S&P500's best-performing stocks:
BIDU, ~50d/1h
BIDU, 180d/2h
Per Barron's, Baidu managers issued downbeat comments about the firm's 2011 growth prospects during an industry conference, prompting the sell-off.
The selling occurred on heavy volume, resulting in a distribution day and, per theory, deteriorating the technical picture for bulls. Yet BIDU is no stranger to volatility, and the stock bounced briskly after a comparable pummeling on November 16. $100 marks not only strong price channel support but, additionally, "round number S&R" that cannot be discounted too lightly. Longs with a $98 stop might be rewarded in the 2-3 day time period.
BIDU, ~50d/1h
BIDU, 180d/2h
Per Barron's, Baidu managers issued downbeat comments about the firm's 2011 growth prospects during an industry conference, prompting the sell-off.
The selling occurred on heavy volume, resulting in a distribution day and, per theory, deteriorating the technical picture for bulls. Yet BIDU is no stranger to volatility, and the stock bounced briskly after a comparable pummeling on November 16. $100 marks not only strong price channel support but, additionally, "round number S&R" that cannot be discounted too lightly. Longs with a $98 stop might be rewarded in the 2-3 day time period.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Dec 2: Markets tempted into "kiss of death"
I love the kiss of death: such a cheeky term and, simultaneously, an elegant insight into the capriciousness of human emotion. Perhaps I've waxed lyrically about the simple phenomenon in earlier posts -- surely, I am nothing if not, quite too often, a broken record -- but, should a refresher be necessary, it is nothing but the approach of price to a trendline, where the absolute value of the slope of price is greater than the absolute value of the slope of trendline, and where the slopes of both have the same sign (i.e. both are positive or both are negative). Here's the kiss of death in action:
Technical analysis predicts that a kiss of death will serve as durable support or resistance. As the name implies, the strong momentum of price will be stymied -- in other words, die -- upon touching, or kissing, the trendline.
The intuition is simple. Price momentum, driven as it is by human psychology, "over-extends" itself (evidenced by a high absolute value of slope) in pursuit of the support / resistance of the trendline in question. The momentum draws-in market participants, each one driven by fear of losing out on the move (n.b. fear of losing out is, per trading psychology goddess Denise Shull, the most compelling of human motivators), but this collective piling-onboard suddenly stops when the kiss of death occurs. Why? Because everyone can see it. Though not all market participants cuddle up nightly with technical analysis software, many technical analysis phenomena are apparent on an intuitive level to a wider class of market participants than simply contrarian-leaning TA aficionados.
Put in practical, i.e. non-theoretical, language the above analysis suggests a favourable probability of price withdrawing from the /ES = ~1222 level, though there is no explicit prediction about the degree of withdrawl; perhaps 1218 or 1215 is possible. And all bets are off thereafter. Of course, no TA indicator is always right -- or even 80% successful. Should price top 1225, the bears will no longer have this particular kiss of death as a valid argument towards their market outlook.
Happy trading!
Technical analysis predicts that a kiss of death will serve as durable support or resistance. As the name implies, the strong momentum of price will be stymied -- in other words, die -- upon touching, or kissing, the trendline.
The intuition is simple. Price momentum, driven as it is by human psychology, "over-extends" itself (evidenced by a high absolute value of slope) in pursuit of the support / resistance of the trendline in question. The momentum draws-in market participants, each one driven by fear of losing out on the move (n.b. fear of losing out is, per trading psychology goddess Denise Shull, the most compelling of human motivators), but this collective piling-onboard suddenly stops when the kiss of death occurs. Why? Because everyone can see it. Though not all market participants cuddle up nightly with technical analysis software, many technical analysis phenomena are apparent on an intuitive level to a wider class of market participants than simply contrarian-leaning TA aficionados.
Put in practical, i.e. non-theoretical, language the above analysis suggests a favourable probability of price withdrawing from the /ES = ~1222 level, though there is no explicit prediction about the degree of withdrawl; perhaps 1218 or 1215 is possible. And all bets are off thereafter. Of course, no TA indicator is always right -- or even 80% successful. Should price top 1225, the bears will no longer have this particular kiss of death as a valid argument towards their market outlook.
Happy trading!
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Nov 23: Let's not forget that Santa Claus rally
As markets tap -- alright, hit -- the brakes in today's pre-market (v/v the NY behemoth) trade, consider this a public service: check the calendar; it's late November; tryptophan, Black Friday, Starbucks Egg Nog lattes (ick, I know...!), suddenly crowded airports, and of course, "All I Want for Christmas Is You" cruelly playing on perpetual repeat all suggest one fact: Santa Claus rally season is here!
Yes, this is that special time of year when markets become positively biased towards the upside. Volumes dry up, investors become even more delusional than ever, and markets tend to tip-toe higher, .4% here, .1% there. It's a suboptimal time to be aggressively short; options bets on volatility (e.g. long straddles) can also go awry.
And so, with the /ES contract down 13 in overnight trade, testing anew the support channel reached during last week's sell-off, now might be an opportune time to don those contrarian thinking caps and crack open a can of cranberry relish.
Here's the /ES:
Additionally, let's quickly consider the technical picture on the 180-day of BRCM. Here's a position where the chart supports a robust (S&R levels are tested repeatedly) and elegant (limited S&R areas define much of the price action) technical analysis picture.
As the reader can herself see, price is currently nestled against an upward sloping price channel, suggesting a potential near-term pull-back, and not inconsistent with the slumping morning futures trade. Over the time frame of one to three weeks, however, the chart strongly suggests further price appreciation, at the very least to the top-most price channel, i.e. the $45-46 level.
To summarize in brief, then, it's not every NYSE issue whose trade maps such a robust and elegant, v/v technicals, chart. I might have to print this one and mount it on my wall and gaze lovingly at it. Alright, maybe not the last part.
Yes, this is that special time of year when markets become positively biased towards the upside. Volumes dry up, investors become even more delusional than ever, and markets tend to tip-toe higher, .4% here, .1% there. It's a suboptimal time to be aggressively short; options bets on volatility (e.g. long straddles) can also go awry.
And so, with the /ES contract down 13 in overnight trade, testing anew the support channel reached during last week's sell-off, now might be an opportune time to don those contrarian thinking caps and crack open a can of cranberry relish.
Here's the /ES:
Additionally, let's quickly consider the technical picture on the 180-day of BRCM. Here's a position where the chart supports a robust (S&R levels are tested repeatedly) and elegant (limited S&R areas define much of the price action) technical analysis picture.
As the reader can herself see, price is currently nestled against an upward sloping price channel, suggesting a potential near-term pull-back, and not inconsistent with the slumping morning futures trade. Over the time frame of one to three weeks, however, the chart strongly suggests further price appreciation, at the very least to the top-most price channel, i.e. the $45-46 level.
To summarize in brief, then, it's not every NYSE issue whose trade maps such a robust and elegant, v/v technicals, chart. I might have to print this one and mount it on my wall and gaze lovingly at it. Alright, maybe not the last part.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
The $400 that slipped away
A warning to all those crazies for whom the phrases "overbooked flight", "looking for volunteers", and "alternate routing via Spokane, El Paso and Halifax" might spontaneously release a flood of endorphins: the airlines don't always play fair.
Case in point: a few days ago I found myself awaiting the boarding of an overbooked flight, and the experience ended with a distinctly disappointing outcome -- though not for the reasons a casual reader might expect. To illustrate the event and provide a valuable take-away, indulge, fair reader, into the (privileged and confidential -- no, not really) communique that I dispatched to the senior tranches of United management (no, actually just to outsourced henchmen on the subcontinent):
**
To Whom It May Concern:
I am disappointed with a recent experience of volunteering my seat on an overbooked flight. The experience occurred yesterday, November **, 2010, at San Francisco airport and concerned UA ***, SFO-IAD.
While waiting at the gate for boarding to commence, I learned from a gate agent that UA *** was overbooked, and I asked for my name to be added to the list of potential volunteers. In conversation with another agent, I learned that I was at the top of the list. Then, as boarding commenced, the agents indicated that they*d need my seat and those of several other volunteers. The agents proceeded to process some of the other volunteers, off-loading them from UA *** and re-booking them on subsequent flights. Finally, as boarding was finishing, an agent indicated that my seat would not be needed after all, and that I could board UA ***.
My disappointment stems from the fact that I don't believe gate agents followed the proper order in processing volunteers. The belief is based on the information from one of the agents that I was at the top of the list of volunteers and, furthermore, on the improbability that all the volunteers processed before me held 1K or Global Service status.
In closing, I hesitate with submitting this claim, as the issue is not particularly serious. Furthermore, one of the agents was apologetic about the turn of events and personally escorted me to the aircraft to ensure that I found space in the overhead bins for my carry-on luggage. Yet, I have chosen to write after all because I felt let down by the whole experience, and the experience might highlight an area in which United could better manage its relations with its frequent fliers.
Regards,
**
What is, in brief, a salient take-away from this experience? For one, the utility of being a "nice guy" does have its limits. On the one hand, maintaining a sociable and unhurried demeanor is surely appropriate when interacting with stressed agents contorting to dispatch an overbooked aircraft without sacrificing punctuality. And not only is such sentiment socially appropriate, it is also economically efficient, as it increases the chances of karma returning once the agents process volunteers' re-booking and issue compensation. But on the other hand, being too detached and amicable can invite fulfillment of the aphorism: "Nice guys finish last."
Indeed, that's exactly what happened to me. Despite being at the head of the volunteer list (and of this I'm certain), I did not push for priority processing; instead, I gave the agents some space, watching as they processed several other volunteers. Then, when they unexpectedly found themselves with an extra seat, I was the odd man out. Going forward, the savvy traveller (er, the selfish crazy!) would do well to tweak his relationship strategy with gate agents to avoid the risk becoming a push-over.
Case in point: a few days ago I found myself awaiting the boarding of an overbooked flight, and the experience ended with a distinctly disappointing outcome -- though not for the reasons a casual reader might expect. To illustrate the event and provide a valuable take-away, indulge, fair reader, into the (privileged and confidential -- no, not really) communique that I dispatched to the senior tranches of United management (no, actually just to outsourced henchmen on the subcontinent):
**
To Whom It May Concern:
I am disappointed with a recent experience of volunteering my seat on an overbooked flight. The experience occurred yesterday, November **, 2010, at San Francisco airport and concerned UA ***, SFO-IAD.
While waiting at the gate for boarding to commence, I learned from a gate agent that UA *** was overbooked, and I asked for my name to be added to the list of potential volunteers. In conversation with another agent, I learned that I was at the top of the list. Then, as boarding commenced, the agents indicated that they*d need my seat and those of several other volunteers. The agents proceeded to process some of the other volunteers, off-loading them from UA *** and re-booking them on subsequent flights. Finally, as boarding was finishing, an agent indicated that my seat would not be needed after all, and that I could board UA ***.
My disappointment stems from the fact that I don't believe gate agents followed the proper order in processing volunteers. The belief is based on the information from one of the agents that I was at the top of the list of volunteers and, furthermore, on the improbability that all the volunteers processed before me held 1K or Global Service status.
In closing, I hesitate with submitting this claim, as the issue is not particularly serious. Furthermore, one of the agents was apologetic about the turn of events and personally escorted me to the aircraft to ensure that I found space in the overhead bins for my carry-on luggage. Yet, I have chosen to write after all because I felt let down by the whole experience, and the experience might highlight an area in which United could better manage its relations with its frequent fliers.
Regards,
**
What is, in brief, a salient take-away from this experience? For one, the utility of being a "nice guy" does have its limits. On the one hand, maintaining a sociable and unhurried demeanor is surely appropriate when interacting with stressed agents contorting to dispatch an overbooked aircraft without sacrificing punctuality. And not only is such sentiment socially appropriate, it is also economically efficient, as it increases the chances of karma returning once the agents process volunteers' re-booking and issue compensation. But on the other hand, being too detached and amicable can invite fulfillment of the aphorism: "Nice guys finish last."
Indeed, that's exactly what happened to me. Despite being at the head of the volunteer list (and of this I'm certain), I did not push for priority processing; instead, I gave the agents some space, watching as they processed several other volunteers. Then, when they unexpectedly found themselves with an extra seat, I was the odd man out. Going forward, the savvy traveller (er, the selfish crazy!) would do well to tweak his relationship strategy with gate agents to avoid the risk becoming a push-over.
Nov 18: Markets poised for advance
As for markets prepare for an advance from the short-term oversold level that has resulted from the last fortnight's shedding of risk, I'd like to briefly point out a firm with a strong story: Textron.
The maker of Cessna aircraft and Bell helicopters has received a boost to its business from Chinese lifting of restrictions on civilian aircraft. (For instance, see "China to open airspace to civilian aircraft", FT, 11/15). Yet, the stock has barely registered any upside from this news, and furthermore, closed yesterday at a quite attractive price level v/v technical analysis considerations. The chart follows:
The maker of Cessna aircraft and Bell helicopters has received a boost to its business from Chinese lifting of restrictions on civilian aircraft. (For instance, see "China to open airspace to civilian aircraft", FT, 11/15). Yet, the stock has barely registered any upside from this news, and furthermore, closed yesterday at a quite attractive price level v/v technical analysis considerations. The chart follows:
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Nov 16: A sharp reversal
Markets contracted sharply in today's trade, with some securities coming into significant support areas. Contrarian bulls are whetting their appetites. But the broad outlook is more uncertain than bullish, as evidenced by, for instance, /ES.
In brief, /ES exhibited an unambiguous break through the price channel support of the post-summer rally. Such a movement portends further value deterioration in the weeks ahead, although not necessarily immediately. Indeed, the index looks oversold at the moment, and challenging 1225 is not out of the question, perhaps in a head-and-shoulders pattern, which is a classic topping formation. Here's the latest chart:
In the realm of individual securities, MRK and BIDU are two of many that standout. The drug maker is plowing quickly into what promises to be significant support; let's keep it on our radar screens as a potentially strong contrarian buy, should price hit the top line of the downward-sloping price channel. As the price channel is sloping in the same direction as price movement, the touch would be a "kiss of death", which has higher probability of repelling the movement.
The Chinese tech firm BIDU, meanwhile, is pulling back from a particularly strong advance in recent weeks. Indeed, while many leading stocks and whole market sectors have been stuck in the mud over the past few years, BIDU continues to advance in seemingly unstoppable fashion. A two-year chart of the security speaks volumes. But, to refer again to the 180-day panorama reproduced below, the current $103.5 support does not seem particularly durable. Additionally, the sharpness of today's 5% markdown -- a definite distribution day, in IBD parlance -- does not bode well for BIDU bulls over the upcoming weeks.
To end on some broad-market summary statistics, here is their representation: S&P500, 1178, down 1.6%. DJIA, 11024, down 1.6%. NASDAQ, 2470, down 1.8%.
In brief, /ES exhibited an unambiguous break through the price channel support of the post-summer rally. Such a movement portends further value deterioration in the weeks ahead, although not necessarily immediately. Indeed, the index looks oversold at the moment, and challenging 1225 is not out of the question, perhaps in a head-and-shoulders pattern, which is a classic topping formation. Here's the latest chart:
In the realm of individual securities, MRK and BIDU are two of many that standout. The drug maker is plowing quickly into what promises to be significant support; let's keep it on our radar screens as a potentially strong contrarian buy, should price hit the top line of the downward-sloping price channel. As the price channel is sloping in the same direction as price movement, the touch would be a "kiss of death", which has higher probability of repelling the movement.
The Chinese tech firm BIDU, meanwhile, is pulling back from a particularly strong advance in recent weeks. Indeed, while many leading stocks and whole market sectors have been stuck in the mud over the past few years, BIDU continues to advance in seemingly unstoppable fashion. A two-year chart of the security speaks volumes. But, to refer again to the 180-day panorama reproduced below, the current $103.5 support does not seem particularly durable. Additionally, the sharpness of today's 5% markdown -- a definite distribution day, in IBD parlance -- does not bode well for BIDU bulls over the upcoming weeks.
To end on some broad-market summary statistics, here is their representation: S&P500, 1178, down 1.6%. DJIA, 11024, down 1.6%. NASDAQ, 2470, down 1.8%.
Monday, November 15, 2010
In recent travels, a notable coincidence
On Friday, November 12, an American Airlines B737-800 took off from Washington's Reagan airport bound for DFW, experienced a cargo hold fire indication while climbing through FL260 (i.e. 26000 feet) some 60 nautical miles west of Dulles airport, and performed a diversion to Dulles, landing safely 26 minutes after wheels-up. The flight departed DCA at 8:43am.
And with apologies about the self-centeredness of this post, here is its meat: I, too, departed Washington at 8:43a on Friday, November 12, albeit from Dulles airport, aboard a United B757-200 bound for Los Angeles. Incidentally, I was listening to Channel 9, the live feed of air traffic control communications; however, I heard nothing about the AA diversion, possibly as I may have tuned to a music channel soon after take-off.
The bottom line: it's a small world. And I might do well to occasionally consider that transcontinental transportation, while very, very safe, is nonetheless inherently risky.
And with apologies about the self-centeredness of this post, here is its meat: I, too, departed Washington at 8:43a on Friday, November 12, albeit from Dulles airport, aboard a United B757-200 bound for Los Angeles. Incidentally, I was listening to Channel 9, the live feed of air traffic control communications; however, I heard nothing about the AA diversion, possibly as I may have tuned to a music channel soon after take-off.
The bottom line: it's a small world. And I might do well to occasionally consider that transcontinental transportation, while very, very safe, is nonetheless inherently risky.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Nov 11: Veterans' Day trade
With apologies to the discerning reader about the vague, content-less title of this post, I shall proceed into just as disjointed a data dump of some of the day's action.
First, a DJIA component had a veritable repeat of May 6th's Flash Crash in the final minutes of today's trade. Here are the smouldering remains:
I haven't yet seen any headline explaining the precipitous decline. [Addendum: Poor headline earnings numbers were the catalysts. The conf. call, which could either fortify the bears or spur on the bulls, is presently ongoing, as of 4:45p EST]. And vertiginous it certainly was: the $35.15 nadir marked a near-instant erasing of all gains since October 25. Put another way, the volatility of the last hour (i.e. the size of the hour's bar on a candlestick chart) exceeds that of any hour-long period in the past 180 sessions.
Second, take a look at XOM, no mere minnow given its status as largest market cap firm (per my possibly imperfect recollection) in the modest marketplace that is Wall Street. Dizzying, seemingly irrational, propelled by ask-questions-later fast fingers: the Exxon chart bears resemblance to that of DIS. Yet the direction is opposite. And how interesting that the curiously anthropomorphic psychology of markets can create a bipolar-eque bifurcation of emotion in two sister-stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average! (Granted, the time frame of the respective moves is dissimilar.) The chart follows:
I cannot omit the most important anomaly of today's trade: CSCO. A DJIA component too, the networking maker plunged 16 percent on a cut in its sales forecast; the chart follows:
As for the broad market, /ES printed 1211.5 at high noon in Anchorage, which corresponded to settlement of the S&P500 at approximately 1214, a change of -0.4%. The DJIA ended at 11283 (down 0.7%) -- and weighed down by CSCO and DIS -- while the NASDAQ closed at 2556 (down 0.9%).
First, a DJIA component had a veritable repeat of May 6th's Flash Crash in the final minutes of today's trade. Here are the smouldering remains:
I haven't yet seen any headline explaining the precipitous decline. [Addendum: Poor headline earnings numbers were the catalysts. The conf. call, which could either fortify the bears or spur on the bulls, is presently ongoing, as of 4:45p EST]. And vertiginous it certainly was: the $35.15 nadir marked a near-instant erasing of all gains since October 25. Put another way, the volatility of the last hour (i.e. the size of the hour's bar on a candlestick chart) exceeds that of any hour-long period in the past 180 sessions.
Second, take a look at XOM, no mere minnow given its status as largest market cap firm (per my possibly imperfect recollection) in the modest marketplace that is Wall Street. Dizzying, seemingly irrational, propelled by ask-questions-later fast fingers: the Exxon chart bears resemblance to that of DIS. Yet the direction is opposite. And how interesting that the curiously anthropomorphic psychology of markets can create a bipolar-eque bifurcation of emotion in two sister-stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average! (Granted, the time frame of the respective moves is dissimilar.) The chart follows:
I cannot omit the most important anomaly of today's trade: CSCO. A DJIA component too, the networking maker plunged 16 percent on a cut in its sales forecast; the chart follows:
As for the broad market, /ES printed 1211.5 at high noon in Anchorage, which corresponded to settlement of the S&P500 at approximately 1214, a change of -0.4%. The DJIA ended at 11283 (down 0.7%) -- and weighed down by CSCO and DIS -- while the NASDAQ closed at 2556 (down 0.9%).
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Nov 10: An ascetic no more
After too long a hiatus, I have carefully recommenced formal re-engagement with that unforgiving but exhilarating world of relative value; I've entered a trade. The above chart depicts the security along with the analysis. And though the price channel is hardly rocket science -- indeed, it is remarkably simple -- the casual reader must bear in mind that uncovering such an elegant opportunity as this requires searching through countless charts. Further buttressing my decision to risk a long-side trade is that, at the approximate end-point of the above chart, /ES was approaching a test of the pivotal 1200 level from above, the first test of this level since breaking through last week. And, needless to say, the virgin test is usually repelled.
With regards to the above chart, violation of approximately $66.3 would trigger a stop, while $67.9 or $68.3 would make sound profitable-exit points.
Incidentally, this morning's strong sell-off in Boeing shares -- and this is news only to those readers on the planet Mars -- is chiefly caused by an emergency evacuation of a 787 test aircraft (ZA002) yesterday after eruption of a small on-board, in-flight fire.
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