Thursday, July 8, 2010

08/07: Markets quieter, no longer fiercely trending

Markets put in a quieter session today, in comparison to the post- July 4th fireworks of this week's first two trading days. /ES futures, after closing yesterday at 1056, quite near the session high, today opened higher, declined modestly through the meat of the session (a peak to trough decline of 13.75 points, or about 1.3%, from 1067.75 to 1054), and rallied impressively into the close, settling at 3:00p just two ticks shy of the intra-day high. Sentiment was boosted with a bullish unemployment claims report released at 7:30a CST. Here's the day's chart:



As already mentioned, markets rallied into the close, which marks a stark departure from markets' habitual PM weakness of the last several weeks. Of course, late-day sell-offs are hallmarks of bearish markets, and afternoon buying, particularly into new highs (which /ES futures today proceeded to set shortly after the 3p CST closing bell), augers well for further gains over the near term. Further bolstering bulls was a decline in Treasuries; /ZN futures declined to below two-seek support of 122'05.

(Editorial aside: To follow-up yesterday's brief commentary regarding the spelling of the plural of Treasury, referring to the bond, today's Financial Times records the spelling of the instruments as 'Treasuries,' which aligns more with my intuitive sense of correctness than the WSJ's reliance on 'Treasurys.' Hence, going forward, I'll stick with the FT's example.)

The bears retain at least two important arguments in their arsenal, the past three sessions' price action notwithstanding. Most importantly, volume failed to climb into above-average territory; today's NASDAQ volume clocked in at 2.06 billion, below the 20SMA of 2.24B and firmly below the volume levels of three particularly active sessions of the recent past: 6/25, 6/29, and 7/1, each of which had volume in excess of 2.65B. (I don't include NYSE volume readings here, as I am finding conflicting values of the metric from various sources; also, I am concerned about the metric's continued reliability, as more trading shifts off the NYSE and onto alternate exchanges.)

Furthermore, /ES futures continue to remain in a 2.5-month, downward sloping price channel; the upper line of the price channel is presently at approximately 1100, which /ES futures would have to top in order to firmly enter more bullish territory. In the region of /ES = 1100 also lurks the all-important 200SMA. Caveat emptor.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

07/07: A one-way day, markets shoot higher

Days like today are rather frustrating for traders with a predilection for contrarian strategies, of which I am one. Here's the whole story, in a single chart:



Relentlessly, indefatigably, most remarkably, markets climbed higher, higher and higher still, with /ES advancing 40. Only twice during that dizzying rally did the instrument stray more than 5 points from its hitherto-notched intra-day peak, once by 5.5 points and another time by 5.75 points. Thus, a trailing stop on a long ES position with a mere 6 points of "leash," entered at the pre-market nadir, would have captured the whole 40 point rally. Remarkable!

By the closing bell, the S&P-500 had advanced 32 points, or 3.1%; the DJIA bulked up by 275 points, or 2.8%; and the NASDAQ added 66 points, or 3.1%.

The rally may yet be all smoke-and-mirrors, however, which is why I've refrained from taking any long positions into the overnight hours. Today's rocket-ship was not fueled by above average volume (see below), there was no particular news that might have provided a durable impetus for buying, and other measures of risk aversion, e.g. Treasurys, as measured by /ZN futures, remain elevated. That said, there are certainly plenty of other risk metrics showing marked improvement over the past two sessions, including /CL (crude futures; up), EUR/USD (up, and rising since a nadir on 6/6), and even to some extent /HG (copper futures; somewhat firmer).

(As an aside, I've noticed that the WSJ refers to the plural of Treasury, when referring to the financial instrument, as Treasurys. Could it really be so? Until I hear otherwise, I'll be employing the convention, as I've done in the above paragraph.)

Here's how the day's volume stacks up, quite literally, against the past 180 days, first on the NYSE, second on the NASDAQ. Apologies for failing to slap on a 30EMA, or similar.


*


I am most curious what tomorrow's markets will bring! /ES = 1100? Or /ES = 1000?

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

July Fourth in the cradle of American liberty

Sunday, July 4th saw me take a characteristically lightning-paced swing through a distant city, flanked by mileage-earning flights purchased at favourable cost-per-mile ratios. In this case, the destination was Philadelphia, most fitting given the date.

My plans for travelling to Philadelphia hatched a few days earlier, on the preceding Monday. US Airways was offering a July 4th special on Twitter: $56 all-in for MKE-PHL-MKE (MKE being, of course, Milwaukee, WI), and other East Coast and Midwest cities were pricing similarly. Chicago was, however, excluded; indeed, MKE was the farthest airport from PHL included in the sale. Naturally, I was interested, and my mind was firmly settled once I saw the most favourable timings on offer: a departure at 6:00a, my absolute favourite time of day to fly, and a return in the late evening (at 7:55p), allowing for a full-day visit to the destination city.

The morning of July 4th had me waking to my iPhone's relatively pleasant "Doorbell" alarm at 3am sharp, and I was soon off after swift execution of the 'ole morning routine and consumption of a full three-course breakfast -- for those interested: Whole Food's honey and oats cereal, cottage cheese with pear-and-pear-juice-from-a-can (quite tasty actually!), and pumpkin seed bread with thinly-sliced smoked turkey and muenster cheese. I was engaging the dance music within my car's CD player by about 3:50a.

Sadly, the twin risk factors of an empty highway and a holiday-linked, augmented police presence meant that I was cruising quite close to the posted speed limits on the morning's 77-mile journey from the 60630 ZIP code to one of MKE's $5/day remote parking lots. In a departure from my usual keen sense of situational awareness -- if I may say so --, I missed the road construction- obscured exit for Mitchell airport, necessitating a detour of 2 or 3 miles. The few minutes' extra travel time, through leafy and deserted residential areas just north of the airfield, revealed an interesting similarity between the Germanic-heritage Milwaukee and the contemporary motherland -- traffic lights set for an efficient yellow- or red-blinking (depending on whether the street is a capillary or an artery) regime during the dead night-time hours!

I parked, was picked up by a waiting shuttle bus, and found myself entering the terminal (pre-security) at approximately 5:20a. The expeditious progress was most fortunate, as I received at ~5a a phone call and voicemail from one of my contacts: "US Airways Elite." The VM, along with a corresponding email, reported the news in a single voice: my flight to PHL was delayed until 7:00a. Thus, I scurried into the terminal and towards the departure board with great haste, knowing I had the perfect excuse to re-route via CLT (that's Charlotte, NC, another of US' hubs) if there was a timely flight. And indeed there was, at 5:40a.

My scurrying turned into a full-blown run. To the security screening checkpoint, discombobulation and "re-combobulation" with a flair and efficiency honed by too much experience and too little time, a final dash to the C18 -- naturally, the farthest gate from the security checkpoint. I arrive to a gate area deserted of passengers, but, thankfully, the jetbridge door remains open and two gate agents are milling about. I present my case. I learn that the PHL flight is delayed by a mechanical, which might last beyond 7am. (Indeed, the flight was eventually cancelled at approximately 10:00am.) I board the CLT-bound bird at 5:30a taking 8A, my preferred exit row seat. I have just enough room to read the Weekend FT, though turning the pages requires the practiced skill of a contortionist.

What fantastic luck, however! I absolutely adore the "maximized" airport experience, where I can achieve the most with the least amount of inefficiency. Surely, re-routing onto a more scenic (and more rewarding, vis-a-vis mileage accrual) pathway, savouring the emotional rush of successfully negotiating one's full demands with the airline counterparty, and executing the entire labyrinth of airport entrance to gate re-booking to aircraft seat in a mere ten minutes is deserving of underscore! Likewise, a time of 2:40 for all I'd hitherto accomplished that morning was worth noting with satisfaction.

The journey down under to CLT was most pleasant, though certainly nothing as sensual as might be implied to the particularly keen reader. Though other road warriors might (vehemently) disagree -- as though I were trying to inculcate Freud's thoughts on religion to a red state -living, large gun -toting, earmarked Bible -thumping man with a particularly large and red neck, with the veins practically bulging out -- I like the CRJ. I admit, the statement applies not if I should suffer the misfortune of daily or weekly commutes on the stubby bird, and indeed, the craft are particularly susceptible to that circle of hell known as interminable-delays-due-to-late-inbound-aircraft-that-are-not-communicated-in-advance-and-announced-in-15-minute-increments-and-average-hours. But for a 5:40a joy-thrust (not a mere joy-ride) into the blissful heavens, anything that flies will do. Yes, I might have low standards because I am deprived, relative to my natural desire of multiple weekly go's. Yes, I mean flights.

Arriving in CLT, I had enough senses about me, despite having just enjoyed an enthralling read of the pink pages and surprisingly pleasant service from the FA (An actual coffee refill! Without needing to ask!), to snap a picture of the curvy beauty:



The adventure, of course, continued. A "classic" Boeing 737-400 would be my chariot to Philadelphia, the layover was a tolerably short fifty minutes (only 25 once zone 1 boarding is taken into consideration), and I would be again riding exit row, this time with an empty adjacent middle. Life is good. And -- Eureka! (Sorry, I could not resist.) I made quite the earth-shattering discovery on this sector. Just see for yourselves:



The flight itself did not disappoint. Jetting from the Southeast, a product of the Coca-Cola company was in order, particularly as I was a shareholder at the time of the flight. To my surprise, the FA took quite extraordinary care with the serving of my Diet Coke, pouring in little bits at a time as the foaming subsided, such that I was left with a "perfect" (plastic) glass of copious black liquid and just a centimeter or so of vigorous foam, all the way up to the brim. Mmmm. My seat was in the Foxtrot column; thus, views of the Bay prevailed, rather than the more enticing District depictions.



We kissed the City of Love's 27L around 11:00a, just as my original MKE-PHL was about to post a cancellation. Thank goodness I navigated to and through MKE with such alacrity! And so, two SEPTA rides the wiser, I emerged in central Philadelphia, just before Independence Hall, where I was greeted with a parade literally at the subway steps (I was expecting nothing less) --



And what a glorious day it was! A parade to greet my arrival, the sunshine and cloudless sky matching conditions I might expect in Waikiki, an entire afternoon for refinement of my trading operation's Business Plan (it is ceaseless, eternally-ongoing labor, almost Sisyphean, though certainly not devoid of its peculiar pleasure) -- the day was mine for the seizing. And carpe diem it was. I shall not bore you with the gory details of underlining here, annotations there, glances interspersed at the idyllic location of shady park behind Independence Hall, boy choir singing at its foot, patient reader (and somewhat confused reader, too, for you are wasting your precious time with this blog's effusive dribble -- the content is lacking; the words are in wasteful abundance).

In due time, I decided that the twelve-hour interlude between proper meals was just too long. It was time for a cheese-steak, a culinary adventure I'd never previously enjoyed within Philadelphia's city limits; my iPhone was indicating "Jim's" to be a popular choice, and it certainly passed the litmus-test of having a plausibly working class, folksy appellation. I was off to its South Street location, a jazzy drag reminiscent of Washington's Adams Morgan or Chicago's Division Street. And while I did not opt for the cheeze-whiz (note its gooey application in the first pic below), my creation was still authentic (and oh so delicious!) --


*


Somewhat satiated -- I honestly could have eaten two more of the sandwiches, showing virtually no resistance to its salty and greasy components, qualities that are generally verboten in my day-to-day diet of whole grain bread, brown rice, and sparkling water -- I ventured into the city for a long-ish walk. The architecture was just begging for my iPhone's studied glances; I wish I had a capable SLR, for the beautiful vistas of the afternoon surely demanded a higher caliber of photography. Some highlights:


*

*


After a quick visit to Sts. Peter and Paul Cathedral, off of Logan Square, for about half of the late afternoon Mass, I was quickly finding myself approaching the twilight of my stay in Philadelphia. And yet, the sun, still somewhat temporally removed from its own decline, was still moderately high in the heavens, its waves of heat lapping, at once gently and urgently, against my skin. No matter the time of day, however, a jaunt to Philly without at least a token moment of laying in the grass of Rittenhouse Square just would not do. And boy, was it idyllic! A precious few minutes were even mined from my schedule for an obligatory visit to the Square-side Barnes and Noble, where I skimmed through the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, finding an article by one of my former professors, Balbina Hwang. Ah, school pride! Here I am, resting in the grass, contemplating Thoreau:



At this point, only an expeditious dash to 30th Street station would do; the airport-bound, R1 SEPTA would not wait! The dash turned into a full-throated run somewhere on the Walnut Street bridge over the comically-named Schuykill River. Such is one of the hazards of being a time-maximizer.

In no time, I found myself back in my comfort zone -- exit row on the CRJ. The journey to Milwaukee's Mitchell Field was terribly expeditious, with wheels-up only 4 minutes after scheduled departure time, a feat virtually unheard-of @ PHL. (Lighter traffic of the July 4th holiday surely helped.) Bucolic scenes serenades past my window:


*


Thanks for travelling together with me!

06/07: A short-lived dead cat (?) bounce

Markets notched a most interesting session today. After tanking approximately 10 points in the final hour of trade on Friday, July 2, ahead of the July 4th market holiday, /ES futures proceeded to drill to fresh 2010 year lows on July 5th, as the U.S. holidayed. Yet, on touching most-powerful support just above 1000 (1002.75 was the overnight low), the futures market ignited on a powerful, sustained, and near-unbroken rally that lasted over 12 hours, taking /ES futures to 1025 by today's pre-market and upwards to 1038 by the mid-morning CST.

And that's where /ES ran into resistance from a robust price channel off the 180-day chart, recoiling in fear. Bears retook control, and markets came to only a few points of their intra-day low of last Friday (which was /ES = 1010.75). Here's the chart I referenced:



Of note is the performance today of the Treasuries market. In the face of rising equities during the pre-market and early market hours, Treasuries firmly held onto their recent gains. Generally, Treasuries and equities (or, more generally, risk assets) are negatively correlated; as investors' outlook improves, they buy risk assets and sell safe-haven assets, of which 10-year Treasuries are the 500-lb gorilla. And, to be clear, Treasuries can be viewed in terms of price or yield. The above statements refer to the price of Treasuries; but if speaking in terms of yield, which moves inversely to price, then Treasury bond yields and equities are positively correlated.

Two windows onto the 10-year Treasury market follow, both charts of /ZN, which are 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures. First, a 90-day chart with 2-hour bars, which is at the high of its range. Second, a 9-year chart with weekly bars, showing a wide-angle perspective onto the market; note how Treasuries spiked during the worst throes of the financial crisis.


*


Finally, /GC, the Gold Futures contract, has been exhibiting notable price action as of late. The 3.5-month chart -- the longest intra-day period available to my current technology -- shows marked deterioration, with one important and robust price channel pierced, and another in danger of violation. Gold should see support at the $1180 level, at least during the intra-day period, but a break downward is certainly a possibility. I'm considering a short of the GLD if /GC prices at $1170 or below. Here's the chart:



Happy trading!

Monday, June 21, 2010

21/06: Markets open strong on renminbi appreciation rhetoric

Markets greeted the day's session with a pop of between ~1 and ~1.5 percent (/ES up sixteen was a figure I heard at least twice on CBS Marketwatch in the early AM; it's still reverberating in my ear, somewhere).

Yet I've just now, moments prior to slipping away for lunch, discovered the tastiest chart of the day. Here she is:



That's right, GS, the bellwether of bellwethers, is lining up for possibly significant up or down movement (with probability to the downside), coming up as it is to a trio of significant resistance forces:
1) A robust price channel dating from March 5, 2010
2) 200-period simple moving average, using hourly bars (non- extended hours) as periods
3) The psychological resistance of $140.0

Do I hear some bears roaring?

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Ah, television...

Just heard on CNBC by a supposed Eastern Europe investment "expert" (6/16, 2:24p EST) -- "...countries like Czechoslovakia...".

*roll eyes*

Banner day on the markets, meanwhile; decisive break through the S&P500 200SMA!

Thursday, June 10, 2010

10/06: Markets rally strong on /ES crossover day

Briefly, markets are recording a powerful rally today, albeit one that has stalled in the late morning (as these words are being written). Complicating technical analysis is the irksome matter of crossover from the /ES June contract to the September expiry; not a futures trader, my understanding of the logic is fuzzy, as the June contract still has 8 days to expiry; however, I assume it has to do with the accelerated decay of time premium over this home-stretch period.

The crossover has interfered (significantly) with technical analysis, since per my rough calculations and observation:

'/ES June' = '/ES September' + 4.5

From another perspective, and incorporating the above equation perfectly, whereas the prior relationship between /ES (June) and SPY had been: '/ES'*(1/10) + .5 = SPY, the new relationship -- i.e. of /ES (September) and SPY -- seems to be:

'/ES September'*(1/10) + .95 = SPY

Thus, while I would be pleased to post some interesting charts of /ES futures, I fear that my price channels and other support/resistance levels have been temporarily rendered suspect. I'll provide, instead, a chart of a highly tantalizing short set-up in HSY (Hershey); I only wish I'd discovered this robust price channel as HSY was powering through $42 earlier today.

Thursday, June 3, 2010

03/06: Market volatility extends into June; near-term upside

Markets today appear poised to venture firmly into higher territory, with /ES futures holding stubbornly above 1100 in overnight trade. Technically, the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern of late May in the /ES appears sound; it marks a near-term market capitulation. I expect a high probability of further appreciation to approximately 1120, at which point e-mini futures will encounter significant resistance of the upper price channel comprising nearly two (tumultuous and highly significant) months of price action. A dip to about 1090 -- the less robust mid-point of the price channel -- is possible prior to the ascent to 1120, and a re-test of 1100 is highly probable. And, finally, I expect markets to abstain from a rally at 1120 until after tomorrow's AM release of the May unemployment number.

Here's a wide-lens view of the pivotal e-mini contract:

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

01/06: Markets under pressure, geopolitical concerns mount

On this first trading day of June, /ES futures point to a sharply lower open (they're presently down about 11 points, a considerable drop, though considerably improved on their nadir of down approximately 19 points to 1069).

For proper perspective, however, consider this ~50 day chart of the /ES, using 2-hour bars (and full 24 hour price action) --



Per the above chart and its price channel, the overnight drop to 1069 is within expected price action (i.e. within the price channel). Furthermore, the late-May break below the lower price channel and subsequent recovery signals a bullish capitulation, and this morning's retracement to the lower price channel is consistent with an upward, post-capitulation trajectory.

In short, I'm bullish as long as /ES holds above 1069, i.e. the lower price channel. A break below, and particularly movement to below 1060, would shift my sentiment to decided bearishness and lead me to project further selling to at least 1020.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

20/05: Markets drop >3.5%

Markets today executed a classic capitulation move, which I expect to continue in the initial hours of tomorrow's trade. According to my own research, the market low MIGHT be 1063.5 in the E-mini S&P500 Index Futures, a level divined by highly robust Fibonacci levels; see the chart below:



Overall, the market indices recorded the following performance statistics: S&P500, -3.9%, or -43.5 points, to 1071.6; DJIA, -3.6%, or -376 points, to 10068; and NASDAQ, -4.1%, or -94.4 points, to 2204.0.

Next, here's a 1-minute bars chart of the /ES, showing the extent of today's intraday swings. It appeared around 13:45 EST that the day's action would be a classic inverse head-and-shoulders pattern; however, price action from about 14:30 and into the close negated that interpretation. With the market's post-close foray to a low of 1063.0, I am obviously somewhat concerned about my theory of this representing a durable bottom; I suppose that tomorrow shall bring the definitive answer! Without further adieu then, here's the 1-min bars, /ES depiction:



Finally, here's a tantalizing chart with which to close out; volatility is certainly reaching a significant resistance point. Not shown is the fact that VIX, at today's close of 45.79, is within a historical 10-year resistance range of approximately 45-49. The VXX, an ETF of VIX, follows:

Thursday, May 6, 2010

06/05: A Black Swan session

Today's market action has been so uncommonly dramatic as to spur a renewed effort at entries to Ad Astra Hoya. Going forward, I pledge:

1) daily entries,
2) a focus on readable content over artistic flourish, and
3) execution upon twin mandates of true value-added within a delivery vehicle of brevity.

**

Owing to the day's gravity, today's entry will delve into a domain of higher word counts than shall be my target. But first some pictures.

SPX (S&P500 index), one-day


PG (Proctor & Gamble), 1p CST to 3p CST


CVX (Chevron), one-day


$DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Average), YTD; that bottoming tail to sub-10k is real price action, not an errant tick


/ES (E-mini S&P500 futures), 2-year, weekly bars; note how this week's (i.e. mostly today's) volatility compares with the 2008-09 financial crisis


CF (CF Industries Holdings Inc), ~1-month, hourly bars; note how, during this afternoon's utter collapse, volume did not reach new highs -- this indicates that market makers reduced bid size en masse, allowing price to crater without a necessary spike of volume to period highs.


**

Today's Black Swan -order price action occurred without an obvious impetus. Markets are, of course, embroiled in the Greek debt imbroglio, and today, like the previous few, brought fresh clashes on the streets of Athens between protesters and police. Today also witnessed parliamentary elections in the UK and, as expected, Tories are expected to win a plurality but not a majority, resulting in a rare (for the Westminster, first-past-the-post political system) hung parliament. Yet none of these explain the ten-percent massacre that the markets at their nadir suffered. Even a two percent decline is difficult to explain given the dearth of any specific data today.

To the contrary, markets dipped around 10:45a CST into significant support at 1150 on the /ES, a level that featured the combination of strong support/resistance on the 1-year chart, a round psychological level, and most importantly, a key Fibonacci support of 38.2% retracement between the YTD high (1216.75 on 4/26) and the YTD low (1040.75 on 2/5). I was, in fact, so confident of this support level that I entered a directional options position in near-the-money, May SPY calls right as /ES momentarily spiked into this support from above. The decision was vindicated with a nearly 10-point pop in the /ES over the ensuing one hour of low-key lunchtime trade; but then, most unexpectedly, momentum abruptly reversed and this seemingly iron-clad support of 1150 broke like a pinata on Cinco de Mayo.

By 12:15p CST, /ES was submerged beneath 1150 and, within the next 90 minutes, it would be momentarily below 1060.

The markets at that moment were absolutely surreal. Spread on front-month, near-the-money /ES options, normally a penny or two, ballooned to a quarter or more. Disbelief exceeded all possible expectations as the capitulation reached an excess that I'd never believed possible in the absence of real news. CNBC was feverishly reporting each additional hundred point chop of the Dow and unable to provide a definite explanation as to why. The whole experience was utterly extraordinary, ghoulishly horrifying, as traumatizing as if I'd witnessed a moderate accident. Divorcing the whole two hours from any impact on P&L, the fear emanated from the shattered conviction that markets ARE NOT to act this way, that in the absence of obviously damning news, market maker bidders would not desert the marketplace and allow it to shed a twelfth of its lustre in the time it takes a nervous, palpitating heart to cycle its lifeblood around the vulnerable, mortal organism that is man.

In light of this from-far-left-field volatility, a tightened, more precisely defined risk tolerance is a necessity. I shall be working on such an articulation tomorrow, during a fresh morning, on the day of the momentous monthly unemployment report. Oh joy, what could tomorrow possibly bring? :)

**

For the record, market indices recorded the following action by the merciful 3p CST closing bell:

SPX: 1,128; down 3.2%
DJIA: 10,520; down 3.2%
COMP: 2,320; down 3.4%

Friday, March 12, 2010

An extraordinarily inspired account (if I may say so) of intrepid peripatetics

Dear readers:

With the caveat that the following account is just over 11 months dated, I present you with a little gem that I today uncovered. Please be kind enough to pardon the occasionally unedited nature of the work.

**

1:00p, Monday April 7. Washington.

I’d just learned that my afternoon class – my only one of the day – had been cancelled, and feeling positively restless after a weekend with little in the way of excitement, I pointed my Firefox browser towards ITA Software to check out fares for same-day travel.

Such action surely seems ill-advised, even insane perhaps, but the would-be critic should be cognizant that on my mind’s front-burner was the thought of maximizing potential frequent-flier program benefits, thereby ensuring that the trip’s bang-for-the-buck extend beyond the immediate twelve hours of seemingly reckless consumption.

After a check of the usual West Coast destinations yielded nothing palatable, I focused my attention on the Northeast and struck proverbial gold with New York City. Fares on Delta were in the neighborhood of $120 roundtrip – cheap for an advance-purchase fare, and phenomenal for a walk-up; furthermore, flight times were near-ideal, and upgrades looked highly likely. I was booked moments later, proceeded to throw some belongings into my backpack, and left for the airport via Georgetown’s GUTS bus and the Blue line Metro service. My booked itinerary was:

DL 6676, DCA-JFK, 2:57p-4:20p, CR9 equipment
DL 6787, JFK-DCA, 9:45p-11:15p, CR9 equipment

Low-lying cloud assaulted Washington with rain throughout the morning of April 7, and while enroute to Washington’s centrally-located Ronald Reagan National Airport, my mobile buzzed into life, displaying an incoming call from one of my saved contacts: “DL Res.” The computer-generated voice, after a courteous greeting, shared the news that DL 6676, my CR9 ride to JFK, would be delayed until 5:00p. Of course, this just would not do, especially given the time-compressed parameters of my half-day hop.


(Bravely setting off)

I arrived speedily at DCA, hastened my way through the sparsely-populated security check, and headed straight to the gate of DL 5918, the 2:30p Delta Shuttle flight to LaGuardia (of course, located just across town from JFK). I presented to the gate agent the quandary of my delayed sector and short NYC ground-time, concluding with the request that I take the Shuttle instead, and the agent straight-away presented me with a boarding pass for the flight. After quickly stocking-up on a fresh roasted turkey sandwich and a banana for the flight, and thereafter availing myself of the day’s FT and NYT from the stash that Delta provides complimentary for Shuttle passengers, I took my seat near the gate, where boarding had just commenced. The reason for my reticent disposition towards marching down the jetway was – as many Delta flyers know quite well – that the airline clears upgrades but fifteen minutes before departure.

Now, a word about this chimera. Upgrades, like no other frequent-flier freebie, conjure images of undeserving entitlement and haughtiness of the highest order. Reality, however, is far more mundane. Short-haul domestic first class provides a somewhat larger seat, space at the aircraft’s pointy end, and perhaps a drink or two – hardly bennies that deserve loftiness by the have’s and lust by the have-not’s. In my opinion, the subjective value of domestic First becomes significant only when one flies so much that a degree of tedium encroaches upon the experience. That’s certainly a subjective threshold, different for everyone, and I’ve only rarely gotten there. Per this theory, therefore, I would truly desire an upgrade only, say, after a speedy succession of transcontinental or transoceanic treks; and I do find supporting empirical evidence in my own experiences. To sum up, then, I hope that talk of upgrades does not conjure associations of sickly snobbishness. An upgrade is graciously appreciated, but nineteen times out of twenty, flying in the back – even way, way in the pits – can still be a thoroughly positive experience.

As 2:15p struck – and I could almost hear the clock tower of Healy Hall some four-and-a-half miles to the north-northwest – the gate agent began to move down the list. After butchering my admittedly difficult surname, I had a new boarding pass in hand and proceeded finally towards the waiting Embraer 175.

On a side note, Delta recently replaced their MD-80 “Maddog” Shuttle service with the significantly smaller E75 aircraft, a move that places the airline at a capacity disadvantage but a fixed-cost advantage against their arch competitor on the route, the US Airways Shuttle. Given the present economic turmoil, it seems like a shrewd move.

I stepped into the cabin and noticed that F was about half-filled, but seat 1A, a prime spot since seating in this cabin is one-aisle-two, was unfilled. I proceeded to settle in, and, after enjoying a pre-departure glass of orange juice, noticed that we were beginning our push-back right on schedule.

The flight was absolutely delightful. Our journey commenced with a roll down runway 14 (shorter than runway 19 and used only by regional aircraft only) and a vigorous climb into the unsettled, mostly cloudy skies; winds had already blown most of the land-hugging rain cloud towards the northwest. I made short work of my brought-aboard sandwich and banana, enjoyed a 187.5ml bottle of mediocre merlot, and helped myself to another banana and Delta’s ubiquitous Biscoff cookies from a snack basket passed around by the courteous flight attendant. Soon enough, our pilot-in-command was executing alternating crisp turns to dodge the cumulous giants; we were catching up with the inclement weather and soon enough were taxiing through a persistent shower to our Marine Air Terminal gate at LGA.

**

3:40p, Monday April 7. New York City.

The Marine Air Terminal is lovely: diminutive and calm, elegant with oozing historicity, enshrined with evocative mural-work and sculpture, comfortable with spacious lounge-seating and club-like atmosphere. Alas, I did not linger to breath-in the milieu, and my dash outdoors, into the precipitation, proved particularly prescient, as my arrival at the adjacent bus-stop coincided with that of the sluggish M60. I was forearmed with a valid Metrocard, from which $2.00 in fare was deducted, and we slowly stepped away into the sluggish weather and traffic. A few minutes later, I changed for the N line at Astoria, and as the New York markets closed at 16:00 I was emerging from the subway at Lexington and 59th.

Here my fortunes temporarily dipped. Increasingly cognizant of a pulsating, hunger-induced headache, I darted into a promising-looking local diner. Per my book, this is as good as it gets; I love discovering dives that are off-the-beaten-path, gloriously unfranchised, idiosyncratic and independent, fiercely local. Yet the “East Sider Chicken Sandwich” I ordered was a risky leap off a sea-hugging cliff – straight into barely submerged, jagged rock of greasiness, excessive saltiness, and over-reliance on unappetizing white bread. I sought to remedy the precarious culinary condition with a new-found favourite: Fage Greek yoghurt with honey, washed down with a lovely V8 (I cannot possibly be the only one that likes this drink!). Alas, the Fage was of the full-fat variety, and I could not stomach the whole container. My final dubious decision of the visit was a last-ditch splurge on grapefruit juice, only to discover it to be pumped full of sugar (it tasted nothing like the Trader Joes grapefruit juice, which is magnificent).


(Provisions)

Knocking the establishment’s proverbial dust off my shoes, I ventured into the rain anew, determined to head north along Lexington in search of a Starbucks. Yes, I do think their coffee is generally horrible (though I do confess to having a soft spot for their lattes), but their real value-added is the now-standard AT&T wifi connection, to which I have free access thanks to having the company’s DSL at my Chicago home; I needed the connection to find the address of St. Patrick’s church, where I was hoping to attend 5:30p Mass.

To my disbelief, I was finding myself increasingly immersed in the resplendent riches of the Upper East Side, but there was nary a Starbucks to be seen – or any mass market brands, for that matter. I did chance upon the Hewitt School, where one of my Uni friends was once a student. There were also instances of under-stated, old-money luxury:


(Hewitt school)


(Lexington Ave.)

Having reached Madison and 90th street, a full 1.8 miles away, per god-like Google Maps, I decided to turn back. I was giving up hope on this useless neighborhood, and just wanted to get on the subway (I was a bit cranky, as another hunger-induced headache was budding; this is quite a recurrent problem at times with my high octane metabolism). But then: could it be? Yes! A Starbucks! At no time in history was man ever so overjoyed to spot an inferior product.

I eagerly abandoned the rainy outdoors to enter the coffee shop and ordered a tall drip coffee; indeed, it was burnt and flavorless, probably having been reheated for some hours. But all was well once I successfully connected to the wifi. In no time, I located a nearby Roman Catholic church with a 6:00p Mass (it was already past 5:30p, and I was dozens of blocks from St. Patrick’s). Pleased with my sudden good fortune, I set out.

Mass on this Monday of Holy Week proved memorable at the small chapel beside (insert church name). I’d have never found the intimate, wood-paneled space, located through a side rectory entrance and down a tight hallway, if a grandmotherly septuagenarian had not gingerly guided us along. Inside, Mass had commenced moments earlier (those who know me, know that gentle tardiness is a regrettably frequent symptom of my ambitious schedules). Presiding was an avuncular, thoughtful priest, soft-spoken, gentle-voiced and most probably big-hearted. His cultivated appearance furthered the charitable image; full-bearded, hair tussled, and moderately chubby, he seemed hopelessly focused on a higher truth.


(Distinctive high-rise)

Upon my return to the streets of the Upper East Side after the uplifting service, a pleasant surprise: the clouds had begun to decisively drift away, as they had in Washington around mid-afternoon. Not only was the rain in retreat, but there were even ephemeral peeks of the setting sun’s effervescent rays. All roads lead to Starbucks, some wise sage once declared, and so it was now; I returned to the 87th and Lexington locale to scheme and strategize. Back on the full-strength wifi, I googled for some decent coffee shops and found an excellent NYT blog post with suggestions. One, Gimme! Coffee, is near the apartment of one of my City-dwelling friends, Victoria, and a feeler text was promptly sent to investigate the possibility of a spontaneous drink for two.

Moments later, I was speeding downtown on the express (insert line) train towards Broadway and 14th. So delightful, that the peripatetic party had traverse (insert distance) miles of traffic-clogged city in a mere two-stop subway surge; if only Washington had a way of bolting between, say, Metro Center and Rosslyn, avoiding the too-frequent intermittent stops. Gimme! was the destination no longer, as a different coffee shop was more convenient for V, and I was quite content to simply avoid another Starbucks concoction. We soon met and a great hour of coffee and light supper followed.

8:15p, my provisional time for commencing the return to distant JFK, came and went – my being firmly ensconced within post-modernism’s version of the town square (i.e. the coffee shop) until half-nine. Yet even the quarter-past-eight goal was optimistic, as any Soho frequent traveler would attest, for making a 9:45p departure from JFK. Once I was finally underway, I knew the terminal arrival would be nail-bitingly close.


(Underground tunnel with curious parallel steel ribbons)


(LIRR)

I dashed to 34th on the N subway and waited only a few minutes for the next Long Island Railroad (LIRR) departure for Jamaica. Enroute, I consulted the Skyteam timetable for re-route options but found the pickings slim. Not only were there no later Delta flights to any Washington-area airport, I was finding absolutely no domestic Delta flights departing after my flight – until I checked Boston, that is. There was my one, single Plan B: a 10:00p departure, from which I could connect to a 6:40a flight on the following morning to Washington Reagan. Such an itinerary would get me into the District nearly an hour earlier than if flying the first morning nonstop from JFK. Furthermore, I knew I’d be in no mood to take the “ride of shame” – the Airtrain back and then the LIRR into town – after potentially missing my flight, hence making the 10:00p service to Boston a preferred outcome.

I pulled into Jamaica at approximately 9:15p and proceeded to execute a no-holds-barred sprint to the Airtrain platform located some 250 meters away. Departure on the computer-guided railway occurred at 9:20p, with only twenty-five minutes remaining until departure and fifteen until the scheduled closing of the gate.

It must be re-iterated: the situation was not utterly bleak. As I had purchased my $68 ticket earlier in the day, I was entitled to a full refund for any reason, per Delta’s 24-hour cancellation policy. Thus, a missed flight would not entail forfeiture of monies paid. Furthermore, there remained the option of the Chinatown bus lines to Washington; though admittedly unappealing, the bus could get me to my Georgetown University campus bed by the early morning.

The Airtrain pulled into the Terminal 2 station at precisely 9:30p and, needless to say, I sprinted off. Up the escalator with but a curt apology to the right-side standees as I whizzed past, acceleration to full Michael Johnson speed down the moving walkway, an impatient descent down the lethargic lift to the departures level.

Needing the miracle of an empty security line, fate instead dealt the near-knockout blow of closed security check. Not having much prior experience with Delta’s JFK operations, I had not realized that the premium passenger lobby closes prior to departure of the last bank of flights. Now, ever more harried, I hustled down a cruel labyrinth of serpentine turns and poor signage to another check-in lobby at the terminal’s back-side; to increase my travails further still, the relocation even required a dash through the now-pouring rain outside.

Finally through security, the time was approximately 9:45p and, upon quickly consulting a departures board for the identity of my gate, proceeded to run, laptop computer hugged firmly to my chest and backpack plopping around on right shoulder. I ran, rounded a corner, ran some more, took a few tight turns, accelerated further down a moving walkway or two, took a ramp up and another down. My mouth becoming parched, I was firmly committed to this folly and continued to run. And after some five full minutes of working out, I arrived to a gate 25 at which the status monitor proclaimed: “DL 6787, Boarding.” Hazzah!, I thought, but of course, it was too good to be true. Turning hopeful-eyed to the gate agent, I learned my flight had closed up.

Perhaps there’s a mechanical or other delay that would permit me to still board?, I pleaded, but to no avail. Luckily, I still had some wits about me and remembered by back-up Boston plan; as that flight was also operated with regional jet equipment, it was boarding at gate 25 as well! And so, turning back to the gate agent, I explained that I could fly to Boston and then down to Washington the following morning, with the routing allowing an earlier arrival than would a nonstop JFK-DCA sector. Mindful only of closing up the Boston-bound flight, the agent absent-mindedly acquiesced, printed me a boarding passed, and hurried me down onto the tarmac.

Thus, my fortunes had turned on a dime; I’d be heading to one of my favourite cities in the most spontaneous of fashions! The rain was now pouring as from a bucket, and I dashed through the bit of exposed apron to the stairs of the Canadair regional jet, pausing for just a moment to take in the brilliant, charged atmosphere. Push-back would occur moments later and, seated next to a deadheading pilot with whom I’d share great conversation, we were underway to Logan International.


(Disembarking our ship @ Logan)


(Boston, you quicken my heart's beat!)