Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Wed, Aug 22: AAPL, GC, MA

Markets today, August 22, were highlighted by the release of Fed meeting minutes, which significantly increased the market's assessed likelihood of a further QE round, causing stocks and bonds to rally.

Apple (AAPL) continues to remain in the spotlight. Just two days ago, the firm became the most valuable public company in (meaningless) nominal terms; adjusted for inflation, the Microsoft of the 1990s still reigns. The hourly-candles chart of AAPL shows the stock is intensifying its rally, having broken above an ascending, three-month price channel on Monday, on high volume to boot. Driving demand is, of course, the forthcoming iPhone 5 unveiling, estimated to occur on September 12. The lead-up fortnights to past iPhone launches have not witnessed parabolic price ascents, though, which colors recent price appreciation in a risky light.

AAPL. May 1, 2012 to present. Hourly candles.
Gold popped today, continuing a rally from $1620 an ounce that began yesterday, with the rally naturally spurred by the increased likelihood of further government asset purchases, a move that is widely interpreted as a debasement of paper currencies. There is likely to be selling pressure just below $1680, although it may prove quite short-lived as the medium-term outlook for gold appears bullish.

GC. Dec 5, 2011 to present. Hourly candles.
Mastercard (MA) shares, meanwhile, are setting up for a pierce of a two-year price channel; recent price advances have occurred on low volume, and the rate of appreciation is diminishing. It may not be an opportune moment for shorting MA, though. Breaks of relatively steep, upward-sloping trendlines often do not lead to outright price declines but merely to sideways consolidation. Investor sentiment remains bullish: MA is still somewhat above its 200-day simple moving average and last dipped below the 200SMA in January 2011.

MA. Aug 2008 to present. Daily candles.