Volatility registered a definite uptick in today's New York trading, with the S&P500 touching a fresh 4-year high (surpassing the previous high-water mark of 1422, set on April 2 of this year, by four points) before selling-off into the close.
This evening's chart wrap-up focuses on five different equities: NASDAQ-100 components CTRP, EXPD, GMCR and SYMC, and S&P-100 component LMT.
Ctrip.com International (CTRP), a Chinese travel agency, has been in a lengthy bear market. The hourly-candles chart, stretching back to December 2011, shows a painful halving of the stock price; moreover, the bear market extends back to late 2010, when CTRP was a fifty dollar stock. The past month has seen a strengthening rally, with waves of buying reaching ever higher and volume growing on the advances. The buying may continue to the six-month price channel boundary, presently about a dime below $16. A break above is likely to portend continuation still higher. The truculent bear should review the last several weeks of
First Solar (FSLR) price action.
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| CTRP. Dec 2, 2011 to present. Hourly candles. |
Expeditors International (EXPD) is likewise looking up. Price action has just broken through a six-month price channel, having surpassed the 200-period simple moving average (based on hourly candles) about a week ago.
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| EXPD. Dec 2, 2011 to present. Hourly candles. |
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), another FSLR-like day-trading vehicle, is continuing its own post-earnings rally. Resistance from a 6-month price channel is likely to provide a pause; it's only about three percent above today's closing price.
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| GMCR. Dec 2, 2011 to present. Hourly candles. |
Symantec Corp (SYMC) is likewise interacting with a significant price channel -- in this case, with a 15-month variety. Price has consolidated just underneath for the past three sessions, showing that the bulls are still in firm control. A break higher is more likely than it appeared late last week.
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| SYMC. Aug 2008 to present. Daily candles. |
Lockheed Martin (LMT), the defense contractor, may be in a capitulatory
rally; bulls should take note and consider hedging. On the
hourly-candles chart, price action has vaulted the equity right to the
resistance end of an exceptionally well-formed 3-month price channel; volatility has contracted, suggesting a regression to the mean is overdue (and volatility expansion almost invariably brings lower prices).
This over-bought sentiment is confirmed on the daily-candles chart,
where price is precisely at 3.5-year price channel resistance, albeit
vis-a-vis a channel that is only modestly well-formed.
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| LMT. May 23, 2012 to present. Hourly candles. |
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| LMT. Aug 2008 to present. Daily candles. |
